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The Cure for the Banking Industry, Part I: End the Fed, or At Least Rein It In

SEP 24, 2012 8:00am ET
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The fundamental issue underlying the boom-and-bust cycle in the financial industry is the lack of sound money.

Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve is constantly manipulating the value of the dollar. The Fed is charged with two goals, controlling the price level and maintaining full employment. In practice, the full-employment goal almost always has priority. This is because the Fed is a political institution (despite its theoretical independence), and because Congress cares more about full employment than about price levels. (Ironically, a debased dollar will ultimately undermine the Fed's full-employment policy goal.)

The most fundamental cure for this crisis and future financial crises would be to eliminate the Federal Reserve. The United States has already had two failed central banks. Between 1870 and 1913, the United States experienced the greatest economic boom in his-tory without a central bank. While there were economic corrections during this period, none were as destructive as the Great Depression or even the current lingering Great Recession. Other countries have grown successfully without a central bank.

The transition to a private banking system would be complex, but it is achievable. The private banking system would operate on a market-selected monetary standard, which would probably be gold. There is nothing magical about gold. However, it is rare, hard to find, expensive to dig up, and therefore difficult for politicians to manipulate.

As long as the federal government can print money at will, the politicians (both Democrats and Republicans) will accumulate debt until the United States experiences a financial collapse. The real issue is not the efficiency of a central bank and the inefficiency of gold or the related technical arguments. The real question is, do you expect politicians to exercise self-discipline before our economy faces major problems? Based on unquestionable historical evidence, it is irrational to trust politicians. The political forces underlying the Fed's decision making will ultimately result in economic disaster.

If the Fed cannot be closed and a private banking system created for political reasons, then the second best solution is to make the dollar convertible in a fixed exchange rate to a quantity of gold. The conversion ratio would be based on current market prices with time allowed for the market to adjust to the announcement.

For example, an ounce of gold might be worth $1,600. It is enlightening to realize that when Roosevelt took the United States offff the gold standard in the 1930s, an ounce of gold was worth $32. The Fed has rapidly destroyed the value of the dollar. Gold has not become more valuable; the dollar has become materially less valuable.

The United States effectively operated on a gold standard for many years. As was discussed earlier, the gold standard was falsely accused of being a major contributor to the Great Depression. The benefit of the gold standard is that it limits the ability of politicians and government bureaucrats to debase the value of the dollar.

After World War II, the U.S. dollar became the reserve currency of the world and foreign governments could ask the United States to convert dollars to gold. Under Lyndon Johnson, the Fed printed so many dollars that the U.S. Treasury did not have enough gold to make the dollar-to-gold conversion. For this reason, Richard Nixon completely decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971. For the first time in 5,000 years, there was no connection of the world's base currency to a naturally occurring standard (such as gold) that could not be manipulated by politicians.

Of course, politicians had found other ways to cheat, but, at least, with a gold standard debasing the currency was harder.

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Comments (3)
"The Cure", Part 1 (no less). If anything, Allison's radical ideas reinforce the natural barrier between politics and economics. His allegorical (a)musings about the good old days of Gold Rush America are as transparent as the Emperor's New Clothes. He longs for what can no longer be and doesn't understand what is - a First World without Emperors. Perhaps he should forego the book (if this thinking is an example), and just give us the White Paper. That would really be "The Cure".
Posted by mdillon | Thursday, September 27 2012 at 12:37PM ET
Snicker. This guy thinks the same banking system that brought us LIBOR manipulation, mortgage fraud, RMBS fraud and cheated people on their credit cards would be better than the Fed.

It is to laugh.
Posted by masaccio | Thursday, September 27 2012 at 1:43PM ET
The conventional wisdom regarding the Fed's performance doesn't square with reality because it is shaped by the Fed and politicians. The constant macro economic manipulation has contributed to the decline in savings and investment without bringing the promised stability.
Posted by kvillani | Thursday, September 27 2012 at 2:24PM ET
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