With refi boom history, a holiday lull is expected to crimp loan originations.

Lenders expect home mortgage originations to slow this month. While many borrowers will be rushing to close before yearend, this flurry is not likely to be enough to offset the holiday lull in applications received, they report.

"What is happening is, we are getting back into seasonal business," said Mickey Ross, executive vice president at Barnett Mortgage Co., Jacksonville, Fla.

"With the refinancing surge in the last two years, we didn't see seasonal business as we usually do," he said. "It is at what we would expect for this time of year." He is optimistic, he said, that business will increase in February after the lull. Deborah A. Blume, senior vice president at Waterfield Mortgage Co., Fort Wayne, Ind., said business has been flat since October but not necessarily because of the holidays. "We usually look back in January to see if there was a trend," she said.

With originations weak, lenders say it is difficult to tell whether a December lull is holiday-related or part of a longer-term trend.

Some attribute the apparent slowdown to an increase in interest rates as much as the time of year. With that combination, and the loss of refinancing business, Lisa Green, vice president at Midlantic Corp., Edison, N.J., said she is seeing a decline in business.

In recent weeks, adjustable rates have been going up more quickly than fixed, said Robert C. Bristow, vice president at First Tennessee Bank. More potential customers were pushed out of the market, he said, in addition to those who had put off buying a house because of the increase in fixed rates.

"As short-term rate have risen in the last three weeks, that has probably squeezed out a few more homebuyers at this time," Mr. Bristow said.

Closings this time of year are still strong because of applications made in late spring and early fall, said Richard Hahn, senior vice president at Key Bank of New York, a subsidiary of Keycorp. "The slow arrival of applications is normal for this time of year," he said, adding: "We're not dead."

Not every mortgage banker is experiencing a dearth of business this month.

Contrary to the industry trend, National Westminster is seeing an increase in home mortgage originations this holiday season, said Simon Lee, senior vice president. He acknowledged that originations are usually hard to come by this time of year, but "we've succeeded in capturing purchase business," he said.

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