It's a time of peace and joy for everyone, it seems, save those working for Glass-Steagall repeal. Despite the best efforts of House Banking Committee Chairman Jim Leach and his supporters, the Glass-Steagall bill is dying a slow, ugly death and only a miracle can save it.
This past week, Rep. Leach tried desperately to breathe life into the measure, and for a few brief moments it looked as though he might be succeeding. A compromise was floated around - actually, several versions of the compromise - only to run into the unhappy reality that no one liked it.
The fact is, Glass-Steagall is in intensive care and lucky to be there.
It's not that Rep. Leach hasn't tried. It's just that he faces the same obstacles that have blocked everyone else who made a run at Glass-Steagall in the last decade.
But while there is no chance whatsoever that Glass-Steagall legislation will find its way to the President's desk this year, the events of the next few weeks are still critically important.
In part, that's because the window for Glass-Steagall - and the regulatory relief measure attached to it - is closing rapidly. Next year's congressional session will be shortened considerably by the early presidential primaries and the November elections. The Glass-Steagall bill has precious little chance as it is, and even less if it begins the year flat on its back.
Perhaps more important is the hearing scheduled before the Supreme Court Jan. 16 on the Barnett Banks insurance case, an event that at first blush might appear to have little to do with Glass-Steagall.
Yet the Barnett case, in which the Jacksonville, Fla., bank is resisting the state's decision to shut down a small-town insurance agency it owns, has become a major tactical consideration in the Glass-Steagall debate.
That's because the nation's insurance agents have seized upon Glass- Steagall as the last, best opportunity to save their business from encroachment by banks. If the agents lose the Barnett case, as bank lawyers almost uniformly believe they will, there won't be much left that Congress can save for them.
Barnett's worst nightmare is that Congress will become a player in judicial proceedings. If Rep. Leach can get any kind of bill to the House floor by Jan. 16 - which really means by yearend given the workings of the congressional calendar - the agents will have one more card to play at the hearing.
If Rep. Leach can pass a bill on the House floor that makes reference to the insurance issue, Florida can argue that the court should defer to the legislative branch, one source familiar with the situation said.
And if the Justices give any indication that they favor Barnett's position, the agents can be expected to show up on Capitol Hill bright and early the morning of Jan. 17, arguing that Congress risks ceding important matters of public policy to the courts.
That's always a potent argument for legislators, and it could give Rep. Leach the additional push he needs to jump-start the process.
If so, he'll have a few other cards to play. He can seek leadership support in breaking the logjam by noting efforts he has made to accommodate both sides, banks and insurance interests.
For the insurance companies, Rep. Leach let a measure go through this week that effectively kills the Retirement CD, an annuity backed by federal insurance.
The insurance agents have given up considerable ground as well, and Rep. Leach might fairly argue that his bill gives them little more than consumer protection measures.
But even that's not much ammunition when the target is as elusive as the Glass-Steagall bill. The likelihood is that Glass-Steagall repeal has already seen its best days for this Congress. And that's saying something for a bill that's on life support.
