The Plus and Cirrus automated teller machine networks have each surpassed the one-billion transaction mark and predict their two-billionth transactions will take place in less than three years.
It took the two networks a full decade to reach 500 million transactions and then only two years to double that figure.
"I think it's a significant landmark that they have reached this milestone," said Stephen White, managing director of Dove Associates Inc., payment systems consultants.
"I'm not at all surprised that they expect to be at two billion within the next three years, and my opinion is, they're right," he added. "International volume is what will be driving it."
Top executives at the two networks agree.
"Up until this point in time, most of the growth has been in the U.S.," said Denny D. Dumler, president and chief executive officer of Plus System Inc., Visa's ATM network subsidiary.
"International acceptance will be the big story going out," he said. "International travelers like to use ATMs; they've found it to be a cost- effective way to exchange currency."
"There are over 100,000 MasterCard/Cirrus ATMs in Europe now," said G. Henry Mundt, president and chief executive officer of Cirrus System Inc., a MasterCard subsidiary. "That's more than we have in the U.S. and Canada."
Cirrus processed 292 million transactions in 1994, 10.2% growth from 1993 volume. Plus processed 300 million transactions in 1994, a 40% growth rate.
International growth and increased use by current cardholders will drive continued explosive growth for at least the next few years, said network executives and consultants.
"The day of the cashless society is still way far off," said Mr. Mundt. "People will still need access to cash, and we will be there with new and interesting ways to provide that access."
Mr. Mundt cited as examples university cards that are ATM/point of sale/identification cards all rolled into one. He also predicted growth in corporate-disbursement ATM cards, since that can be a cheap method of giving employees needed cash.
"The theory of large numbers says you can't see high growth for very long," said Mr. Mundt. "Eventually - in the next few years - it'll level off. The numbers will still be very high, but the growth will level off."
