Flight from California and Northeast Seen Fueling Growth in Mountain

Living the California Dream has become a thing of the past since the recent slump in the Golden State's economy, says a Census Bureau economist.

Taking its place? The Boise Dream, the Denver Dream, the Phoenix dream, the Salt Lake City Dream, according to the bureau's chief economist, Ken Goldstein.

Midsize to large cities in the Middle West and Mountain States are getting migration from the economically sluggish Northeast and from California. In fact, the whole chunk of America from California's eastern border to the grain belt is looking promising, according to the most recent housing data. Mortgage lenders in those areas should expect increased volume.

The mountain region - Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Nevada and Montana - reported the strongest increase in home prices from August 1995 to August 1996, 6%.

This pace of growth is not expected to stall anytime soon. "The mountain region will be the fastest-growing part of the country for the next few years," said Mr. Goldstein.

Four types of people are moving to the region, he said.

"Don't fence me in" folks are leaving the Northeast for cleaner skies, he said. And former residents of cities the size of Houston or San Diego are looking for smaller towns. They are abandoning those places after being disillusioned by job prospects and housing prices. Moreover, "young techies" fresh from college or first jobs are moving to Denver or Boise to make a name for themselves in what Mr. Goldstein calls the "Silicon Valley of 1996." And the type of people who think the "best view of civilization is from a rear-view mirror" are taking advantage of the mountain West's isolation.

Mr. Goldstein is touting Boise, Idaho, as this year's boomtown. "You say 'Boise,' and you think it's five miles off the exit to nowhere, but that's not true anymore," he said. "Parts of it look like Greenwich Village" in New York.

Data on November housing starts, divided nationally into four regions, were flat or down slightly throughout the United States. But the Midwest showed slight growth for the month, due in part to high demand for new homes in Idaho.

"We've had exceptional growth in the past five years," said Susan Semba, president of the Idaho Mortgage Bankers Association. Technological industries and people fleeing California are responsible for a large part of migration to the state, she said.

In Boise and the surrounding area, growth of housing starts is concentrated in the 1,100- to 1,500-square-foot, three-bedroom home, Ms. Semba said, as couples with children move to Ada and Canyon counties.

Phoenix is shaping up as another hot spot, according to Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale University. The city is attracting industry, he said, because of its pro-business attitude and cheap real estate.

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