Slower Economic Growth - 1.5% to 2% - Predicted for Next Year

The economy will continue to grow in 1997, although at a slower clip than the last two quarters of this year, the American Bankers Association's economic advisory committee said Thursday.

"A recession isn't likely, but I wouldn't be surprised if we had one or two soft quarters," said the committee's chairman, First Union Corp. chief economist Joel L. Naroff.

Mr. Naroff's committee pegged growth next year at between 1.5% and 2%. That's down from 4.5% this year. The slower rate of growth may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates, he said.

He predicted consumer use of credit also will slow down while banks, chastened by record delinquency rates, will stop expanding credit limits.

Mr. Naroff said he doesn't expect the recent election to change the economy's outlook. "This Congress isn't going to be radically different from the last," he said. "The one change is that this group has already been to war with the President and found that war is hell." - Tara A. Trower, Special to American Banker.

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