Home Resales at Record 4.2M in '97; Slowed in Dec.

It's official-home resales set a record in 1997 as 4.21 million existing homes changed hands, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

R. Layne Morrill, the trade group's president couldn't help himself: "Aren't they great!" he exclaimed over the numbers.

Mr. Morrill, president of Shepherd of the Hills Realtors, Kimberling City, Mo., credited low interest rates, bullish consumers, the influx of immigrants, and tax-rule changes that favored housing.

It was "a solid year," agreed Paul C. Taylor, senior economist at America's Community Bankers, the thrift trade group. The previous record was set in 1996, when 4.08 million existing homes were sold.

Frederick E. Flick, vice president of research at the Realtors group, said the news was particularly good in 1997 in the West and Northeast, where sales were up 8% and 6.5%, respectively, from the year before.

In both regions, sales had been lackluster for many years because high- priced homes had lost or barely gained value, Mr. Flick said. The 1997 uptick reflected the recovery of the high-priced market, he said.

"The West and the Northeast have been problem areas for the country. This shows they are kind of back," he said.

The Realtors association reported that the pace of sales slowed in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.29 million units, from November's rate of 4.38 million units.

The sales pace declined in the South and West but picked up in the Northeast during December. It was unchanged in the Midwest.

This is the second statistic in a week suggesting that housing activity, which is expected to cool this year, may have begun to do so. Last week, the Department of Commerce reported that housing starts in December fell 0.8%, to an annual pace of 1.519 million units. In all of 1997, builders began work on 1.476 million units.

But economists cautioned against reading too much into one month's numbers. Home sales that closed in December were likely initiated in October, when interest rates were higher, said Michael Carliner, staff vice president for economics at the National Association of Home Builders. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage fell to 7.10% in December from 7.29% in October, according to Freddie Mac.

"While we do expect a slowdown," Mr. Carliner said, "most of that won't occur until after midyear." Sales will continue to be very strong through the first half, he said.

"Because mortgage originations are so good," said Mr. Taylor of the thrift group, "and because this economy is still adding jobs, I think this is a temporary setback."

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