Analysts Startled by How Fast Market Turned Against Banks

In the space of just three months, the surging profits and manic dealmaking that marked banking for much of the 1990s have given way to global financial woes and serious concerns about the industry's strength.

It has all happened much faster than the industry downturn at the decade's start, says leading investor James Schmidt. That is especially true for the decline in stock prices, which he calls "kind of confounding."

Mr. Schmidt, of John Hancock Advisers, and three brokerage house analysts sized up the new landscape during American Banker's quarterly Analysts Roundtable.

Their sobering conclusion: Though the initial damage has been to money- center banks with direct overseas exposure, a softer U.S. economy could hurt the entire industry well into next year.

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