Winners in American Banker's annual Wall Street Sharpshooters survey were selected for the accuracy of their earnings-per-share forecasts for the year and each quarter.
The winner for money-center banks: Nigel P. Dally of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter; Robert Albertson of Goldman Sachs was second, and Norman Jaffe of Fox-Pitt, Kelton was third.
Regional banks: Joseph Duwan of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods topped the list, followed by David Stumpf of A.G. Edwards. Lori Appelbaum of Goldman Sachs and Henry Dickson of Salomon Smith Barney were tied for third.
Thrifts: Thomas O'Donnell of Salomon Smith Barney was on top, followed by Caren E. Mayer of NationsBanc Montgomery and Michael Hodes of Goldman Sachs.
GSE's: Mr. O'Donnell, followed by Michael Hughes of Merrill Lynch and Jonathan Gray of Sanford Bernstein.
Credit cards: Michael Freudenstein, followed by Steven Eisman of CIBC Oppenheimer and Susan Rich of Donaldson, Lufkin.
General finance: Mr. Freudenstein, followed by Jennifer Oliver Martin of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter; Mr. Eisman was third.
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In contrast to other analyst rankings, the American Banker method does not take into account the depth of an analyst's written reports, or the timeliness of buy and sell recommendations. It focuses on the bread and butter of the business, financial analysis.
Scores are expressed as a percentage of the average error by the peer group of analysts. Calculations were by First Call Corp.
American Banker set minimum standards for inclusion in each category. For the GSE and credit card categories, analysts were required to have provided estimates on all three companies in the category, and at least 10 forecasts.
The other minimums: general finance, six companies and 15 estimates; money-centers, four companies and 10 forecasts; regional banks, 10 companies and 25 forecasts; thrifts, nine companies and 14 estimates.
