Fees Expected to Decide 3Q Winners, Losers

companies, analysts say.

"The fee trend continues to be very important," said George Bicher, a banking analyst at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown.

SunTrust Banks expects 10% growth in such fee-oriented businesses as trust, mortgages, and retail investment services, said Stephen Biggar, an analyst at Standard & Poor's equity group.

PNC Bank Corp. of Pittsburgh will show substantial growth in fee income in areas such as asset management and mutual fund servicing, Mr. Biggar said.

In the Midwest and West, U.S. Bancorp is expected to report overall earnings growth in the low double digits, fueled by increases in fees from a variety of its businesses, including credit cards. But investment banking revenues are expected to be somewhat below the level of the second quarter, when its Piper Jaffray unit posted record results, said Carla D'Arista, a banking analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co.

Big banks in the third quarter will see a softening of trading revenues offset in part by fee growth, analysts say.

"With the Dow Jones industrial average still above 10,000, fee-based activities that touch the stock market even indirectly should continue to fare reasonably well,'' said Michael Mayo, a banking analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston. He cited retail brokerage, asset management, trust, investment product sales, and private banking as examples of businesses that will show double-digit increases at many banking companies.

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