James A. Johnson's decision to step down as chairman of Fannie Mae at yearend has Washington buzzing about what he might do next.
The list of jobs Mr. Johnson might truly want is considered short-very short. Among them are secretary of the Treasury, president of the World Bank, and, as a distant and uncertain runner-up, U.S. senator.
"He's a Washington player, and I think he'll want to remain one," said one veteran government-watcher, who thinks Mr. Johnson really only wants to be Treasury secretary.
If he doesn't get that, "he might just want to be one of the Wise Men- somebody whom presidents would call on when they have problems," this person said.
Mr. Johnson declined to comment for this story. John Buckley, senior vice president for communications at Fannie Mae, said, "Jim's made it perfectly clear that he will be talking about his plans when he is no longer chairman of Fannie Mae."
That will not be until Dec. 31., when Franklin D. Raines, now President Clinton's budget director and formerly a Fannie Mae vice chairman under Mr. Johnson, takes over. Mr. Johnson will remain on Fannie Mae's board as head of its executive committee.
There have been persistent rumors that Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who is an old friend of Mr. Johnson's, wants to resign before President Clinton's term ends. Mr. Rubin has denied the rumors.
But were the Treasury secretary to leave, Mr. Johnson's understanding of the financial markets and public skills would make the 54-year-old Democrat a viable replacement. And, as another longtime government-watcher noted, "if Rubin recommended him, it would help."
Mr. Johnson has ties to the current occupant of another job that might appeal to him: presidency of the World Bank. Mr. Johnson took over as unpaid chairman of the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in 1996 when investment banker James D. Wolfensohn, who was then chairman, stepped down to run the World Bank.
Louis H. Nevins, president of the Western League of Savings Institutions, said he has written to Mr. Johnson, asking him to "go to work for the city of Washington." Washington's local government is widely perceived as poorly run, and Mr. Nevins, who lives in Washington, said the city needs someone of Mr. Johnson's "caliber and clout."
Mr. Johnson, a Minnesota native, is also mentioned as a possible challenger to Sen. Rod Grams, R-Minn., whose first term ends in 2000.
Certainly, Mr. Johnson would be up to one of the requirements of the job-raising money, and lots of it, to finance a successful campaign. But being one of 100 senators would be far less appealing to Mr. Johnson, insiders speculate, than being Treasury secretary.
"When you're a senator, especially a freshman senator, you don't get to make many decisions," one observer noted. Having worked in the Senate and lobbied its members, Mr. Johnson may know that institution just a little too well, warts and all, observers say.
The changing of the guard at Fannie Mae is considered a model of how corporations should handle management successions, and is focusing attention on the career plans of Mr. Johnson's counterpart at Freddie Mac, the other government-sponsored mortgage investor. Freddie chairman Leland C. Brendsel, however, has shown no sign of wanting to leave.
