Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which posted a record profit last year, is likely to report a loss for its fiscal fourth quarter, which will end Nov. 30, because of a "terrible" stock market, according to Guy Moszkowski, an analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc.

Mr. Moszkowski wrote in a note to investors Monday that he now expects Goldman to lose 49 cents a share for the quarter, instead of the $2.98 profit he had predicted earlier.

The New York company has not reported a quarterly loss since it became a public company in 1999.

Most major global stock indexes have dropped more than 25% this year. Goldman's private-equity positions and its stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are likely to suffer as a result of the market performance, Mr. Moszkowski wrote.

He also expects Goldman to report a $1.3 billion writedown for its leveraged loan portfolio, because of a drop in that market.

In the same note, Mr. Moszkowski lowered his fourth-quarter earnings estimate for Morgan Stanley by half, to 36 cents a share. Like Goldman, Morgan Stanley converted to a bank holding company in September.

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