As a mortgage lending bonanza stretches well into its second year, William H. Lacy has some sober words for the industry: Get ready for a major shakeout.

Mr. Lacy, chief executive of Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp., expects industrywide originations to fall by one-third either next year or in 1995, as refinancings run out of steam. Price competition will stiffen, leaving only the most nimble of players to prosper.

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