New York State officials are projecting that the state will end the 1994 fiscal year on March 31 with a $38 million surplus.

The projected surplus, announced Friday by the state budget division, would mark the second straight year that the state has produced a budget surplus, indicating that state officials are doing a better job estimating revenues and expenditures.

In October 1992, the budget division projected that the state would produce a $28 million surplus. When Gov. Mario M. Cuomo proposed his fiscal 1994 budget in January, he announced that the fiscal 1993 surplus had grown to $184 million. By the end of the fiscal year, the division said the surplus was $671 million.

Fiscal 1993 marked the first time in four years that the state did not have to issue deficit notes to close a budget gap.

Cynthia Green, deputy director for research at the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonprofit fiscal watchdog group, said that while the report "is good news for the state," it also indicates that the state may have to control spending in the future.

Green said the report shows personal income taxes growing at 10% in fiscal 1994, while spending on grants to local governments and state agencies is growing at around 6%.

But, she said, the personal income tax growth is largely a function of one-time revenue increases. As a result, the state may have to reduce expenditures if it is to achieve a structurally balanced budget in fiscal 1995 and beyond.

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