A decline in mortgage origination volume has already begun, and while a shrinkage of 30 to 35% is expected for the industry in the second half, the effects on individual lenders are likely to be scattered all over the chart.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is predicting a drop of 32% in the second half from the enormous figure in the second half of 1998. But the course of interest rates is fairly stable, and the boom in the housing market is proving to be surprisingly durable, so purchase loans should continue strong while refinancings continue to shrink.

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