Study Predicts Up To 200 Banks Could Fail in 2010

NEW YORK – A new report estimates that 200 banks with $170 billion in assets will fail in 2010, up from 140 banks last year with the same amount of assets.

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The projection was made by Trepp, LLC. "The highest concentration of at-risk banks are in the boom/bust markets of Florida, Georgia and California, and the rust belt markets of Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan," Trepp said in a report.

Meanwhile, the 30-day delinquency rate on securitized multifamily mortgages jumped 330 basis points to 13.2% in March over February, in large part due to a single, $3-billion default – that of Manhattan’s Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village project. Without that default, the delinquency rate would have jumped 62 bps to 10.5%, according a report from Trepp, which tracks the performance of commercial mortgage-backed securities.

Trepp reported the 30-day delinquency rate on all CMBS hit 7.6% in March, up from 6.7% in February. "Weakening commercial real estate and construction loans continue to drive bank failures," Trepp noted in a separate report.


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