The lender is among the top U.S. banks that on Friday will kick off another reporting season after a tumultuous year that saw the collapse of some regional lenders against a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as rising interest rates.
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JPMorgan's dominance likely continued unchallenged in the fourth quarter, with revenue projected to grow by 13%. The bank's recent updates suggest it could surpass its net interest income guidance for the period. That would open the door to a possible lifting of its $80 billion mid-term target for the metric, Piper Sandler noted. JPMorgan's strong capital position should see it weather any volatility in the new year, it added.
Net interest income at both Bank of America and Wells Fargo could contract in the fourth quarter, but improving asset yields should begin to offset funding cost pressures for lenders this year, Piper Sandler said.
Citigroup revenues for the year are seen in at the lower end of prior guidance, with Piper Sandler noting that executive comments at a December conference implied weaker-than-expected results. Net interest income growth is projected to be flat after six consecutive quarters of double-digit expansion.
BlackRock's net flows are seen slipping 58% versus the same period a year ago, a more moderate decline compared to the previous quarter's 85% plunge. While large-client redemption and fee-rate pressures made for a tougher operating environment last year, the outlook for asset managers in 2024 is turning more positive, "potentially aiding flows," Bloomberg Intelligence said.
The Bank of New York Mellon could see its first decline in revenue since the second quarter of 2021. The lender's profitability is softening even as it affirmed that it would meet its 20% net interest revenue growth in 2023, BI said.
