Scenario #4

This analysis relies on end-of-year 2009 Call Report data, along with supplemental information-primarily analysis of the current MBS investment market and year-end CU and bank delinquency reports. Investment and loan values were set at 75% for MBS, 96% for first mortgages, 100% on second mortgages, 99% for credit cards, 99% for other consumer loans, 97% for commercial real estate 97%, and 99% on commercial loans. Treasury 's 4% capital-to-asset benchmark is used.

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Result: Institutions needing capital assistance-1,628 banks for $177 billion and 393 CUs for $3.7 billion.

"About one year later, you can see how inaccurate the Fed Treasury was in their stress test predictions for investment and loan values," Moebs pointed out.


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