Federal Open Market Committee press conference: Live coverage

ByKyle Campbell, John Heltman, Maria Volkova

July 30, 2025 11:52 AM

Despite increasing pressure from the White House to relax monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is poised to keep interest rates unchanged yet again after this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

In recent speeches and public comments, Fed officials have largely signaled a desire to maintain the committee's wait-and-see posture. Their argument has been, in essence, that the economy is strong — a point bolstered by Wednesday morning's gross domestic product reading — but inflation is too far above the Fed's 2% target and a host of major policy changes create too much uncertainty to adjust interest rates.

"Given the stability in the employment side of our mandate, with the unemployment rate still at historically low levels, elevated short-run inflation expectations, and goods inflation rising due to the upward pressure from tariffs, I find it appropriate to hold our policy rate at the current level for some time," said Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler in a speech earlier this month. "This still-restrictive policy stance is important to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored."

Markets have incorporated these views into their expectations, with just under 97% of federal funds rate futures trades underwriting no change in the Fed's benchmark policy rate, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, compared to 3% betting on a quarter-point cut.

Even so, the economic outlook is not unanimous within the 19-member FOMC. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller has argued that economic activity is slowing and demand for labor is weakening under the weight of a monetary policy that is too restrictive.

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"Based on June's Summary of Economic Projections, the current target range for the federal funds rate of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent is 125 to 150 basis points above the participants' median estimates of the longer-run federal funds rate of 3 percent," Waller said in a recent speech. "While I sometimes hear the view that policy is only modestly restrictive, this is not my definition of 'modestly.'"

The FOMC's policy decision will be announced at 2 pm, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference set for 2:30 pm.

8 Posts

18h 2m ago

Powell pledges not to allow renewed inflation

By Kyle Campbell

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said new tariffs will likely lead to higher prices but he vowed not to let that one-time uptick turn into sustained inflation.

"In the end … this will not turn out to be inflation, because we'll make sure that it's not," Powell said. "We will … make sure that this does not move from being a one-time price increase to serious inflation. We want to do that efficiently."

Powell added that the Fed still has a "long way to go" before it understands exactly how higher import taxes will impact prices and the broader economy. He added that the central bank always assumed that it would be a slow process for the impact of inflation to fully play out, but that is playing out "slower than expected."

For now, he said higher levies being paid at the border are only having a minor impact on consumer prices, but it remains to be seen what part of the value chain is absorbing that cost — be it importer, exporter or retailer.

"You have to think of this as still quite early days," he said.

18h 4m ago

Powell reflects on 'good visit' with President

By John Heltman

Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the president's visit to the Federal Reserve Board headquarters last week was productive and said his takeaway from the visit is that the President wants to see construction completed quickly.

Speaking at the Federal Open Market Committee's press conference Wednesday, Powell said he had a "good visit" with Trump last week, when the president came to the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington to inspect ongoing renovations that have become a source of concern for some members of the administration, who charge that cost overruns could serve as cause for Powell's removal as Fed chair.

Powell said the renovations underwent extensive review with the National Capitol Planning Commission "almost a decade ago" and that those reviews were "constructive" and "very long." He added that he shares the president's urgency in completing the project, which is estimated to cost $2.5 billion, over an initial estimate of $1.9 billion.

"I was quite pleased to have the President say multiple times that what he really wanted to see was us getting this construction completed as soon as possible," Powell said. "That is our focus, and that's what we're going to do."

18h 11m ago

Powell said dissents were well explained

By Kyle Campbell

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said his two colleagues who voted against Wednesday's policy action made strong arguments for their position.

During his post-meeting press conference, Powell said Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Gov. Christopher Waller clearly expressed their opinions about economic conditions and their preference for cutting interest rates rather than holding them steady.

"What you want from everybody and also from the dissenter, is a clear explanation of what your thinking is and what are the arguments you're making. And we had that today," Powell said. "This was a good meeting all around the table where people thought carefully about this and put their positions out there."

Powell did not say what specific arguments Bowman and Waller made, but he emphasized that most participants agreed that it was appropriate to keep the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%.

"As I mentioned, the majority of the committee was of the view that inflation's a bit above target. Maximum employment is at target," he said. "That calls for a modestly restrictive stance of policy for now."

18h 53m ago

Markets unmoved by Fed decision

By John Heltman

Bloomberg News

Leading stock indices shrugged off the Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady, likely an outgrowth of the central bank meeting expectations and rosier economic sentiments based on this morning's stronger-than-expected economic growth report.

The Dow Jones Industrial average was up 0.4% on the day shortly after the Fed's 2pm announcement; the S&P 500 index fell slightly on the news but remained up by 0.25%, and the KBW Bank index, which tracks bank stock prices, was up 0.44% on the day.

Federal Reserve officials have been consistent in their view that the economy is strong but that unknown factors — including the implications of the recently-passed budget and spending bill and the outcome of President Trump's trade negotiations — are preventing the central bank from cutting interest rates. President Trump, for his part, has been vocal in his insistence that the Fed cut rates dramatically and quickly.

Fed keeps rates steady with two dissenting votes

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, along with Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, voted against the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to keep interest rates unchanged Wednesday,

]Bloomberg News

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday by a vote of 9 to 2, with one absence.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Gov. Christopher Waller voted against the action, citing a preference to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point. Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler was absent from the meeting and did not cast a vote.

The committee's decision to keep the target range for the policy rate between 4.25% and 4.5% was widely expected ahead of the meeting. Similarly, Waller and Bowman had signaled their preference for easing policy in speeches made during the inter-meeting period.

Waller and Bowman have each cast a dissenting vote on a monetary policy action in recent months, but this is the first time both have voted in the same meeting.

The FOMC has not seen multiple no votes since before the COVID-19 pandemic. Historically, dissents on the committee have been few and far between, especially from members of the Board of Governors.

In its policy statement, the committee acknowledged some peculiarities in cornerstone economic reports. It cited "swings in net exports," which resulted in an economic contraction during the first quarter and a surprise surge in GDP growth in the second quarter.

Ultimately, the FOMC concluded that low unemployment, elevated inflation and continued economic uncertainty made holding steady the best course of action.

Growth higher than expected, but with warnings

Bloomberg News

In another early morning Truth Social post, Trump said the Bureau of Economic Analysis's Wednesday GDP release — which showed a 3% year-over-year increase in economic output — stood as evidence that the time was right for a cut.

"2Q GDP JUST OUT: 3%, WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED! 'Too Late' MUST NOW LOWER THE RATE," Trump wrote, referring to Powell. "No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their homes!"

The quarterly reading is the highest since the third quarter of last year and a significant improvement from the first quarter of this year, when the economy contracted by half a percentage point. Both quarterly estimates have been shaped by atypical behavior that economists believe are responses to evolving trade policies.

The biggest contribution to the second quarter's jump in GDP was a sharp decline in imports, which subtract from the calculation of economic output. This decline in import activity coupled with strong consumer spending offset a roughly 3% decline in business investment and minor downtick in government spending.

Meanwhile, the measured decline in economic activity during the first quarter of the year was largely driven by a surge in imports, as businesses ramped up their orders of overseas goods to get ahead of new import taxes.

In an analyst note released Wednesday, Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams said the second quarter GDP report beat the consensus growth estimate of 2.6%, but the underlying details of the report show signs of weakness, including a decline in real final sales to domestic purchasers.

"Combining the volatile first and second quarters, real GDP grew a sluggish 1.2% annualized in the first half of 2025," Adams wrote. "This is a big slowdown from its 2.8% increase in 2024 and 2.9% increase in 2023."

Powell under pressure on interest rates

President Donald Trump, left, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve Board headquarters last week.

Getty Images

Since last month's FOMC meeting, Trump and his allies in Washington have redoubled their efforts to cajole the central bank into a rate cut, arguing that inflation is close enough to the Fed's target and easier policy is needed to bolster the labor market. They also argue that the U.S. is falling behind global peers, like the European Union, which have cut rates several times this year.

The past six weeks have also seen the pressure campaign put Powell more squarely in the crosshairs, with a handful of federal agency heads and lawmakers making the case that the Fed chair could be fired for cause because of cost overruns on the central bank's yearslong headquarters renovations in Washington, D.C.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte called for an investigation into Powell for "deceptive" responses to Senate Banking Committee questions about the project.

"I am asking Congress to investigate Chairman Jerome Powell, his political bias, and his deceptive Senate testimony, which is enough to be removed 'for cause,'" Pulte said in a written statement, adding that Powell's testimony amounted to "nothing short of malfeasance and is worthy of 'for cause.'"

Trump has said he has no plans to remove Powell from office but left the option open should the construction overruns rise to the level of fraud.

Powell, for his part, has said repeatedly that he has no plans to step down from office. He has also insisted that political grousing has no sway on the Fed's policymaking.

"The things that matter are using our tools to achieve the goals that Congress has given us" maximum employment, price stability, financial stability," he said. "That's what we focus on 100%."

Tariff deadline looming

Bloomberg News

Wednesday's FOMC policy decision will come just two days before the Aug. 1 deadline for countries to negotiate new trade agreements with the U.S. On Friday, nations that have not cut a deal will be subject to the full "reciprocal" tariffs first announced in April, meaning the levies they face would match those they impose on the U.S.

The administration has announced a handful of significant trade agreements this month — including with the European Union and Japan — but has yet to come to terms with major trade partners such as Canada and Mexico.

In a Truth Social post on Wednesday morning, President Donald Trump affirmed that Friday would be the final deadline for countries to avoid punishingly high tariffs.

"THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE — IT STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED," the president wrote. "A BIG DAY FOR AMERICA!!!"

Trump also singled out India on Wednesday, arguing that the U.S. has a "massive trade deficit" with the country of a billion-plus people. He also threatened the country with a 25% tariff rate "plus a penalty" if it continued to buy Russian oil.

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twitter	JohnHeltman
mailto	john.heltman@arizent.com
linkedin	john-heltman-84b6b4a