Federal Open Market Committee press conference: Live Coverage

Published March 18, 2026 1:30 PM

Updated March 18, 2026 3:12 PM

1 Min Read

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting body is expected to outline its near-term plans Wednesday, with markets overwhelmingly anticipating officials will leave rates unchanged, even as risks are growing on both sides of the central bank's mandate.

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting Tuesday and will release its near-term interest rate plan at 2 p.m. Wednesday.

Two major factors are weighing on the Fed's longer-term policy outlook: the war in Iran and continued uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Both are expected to deter policymakers from cutting short-term rates in March, and could rule out rate changes for much of the year. The Fed's current target range stands at between 3.5% and 3.75%.

If officials hold rates steady, it would mark the second consecutive pause following three quarter-point cuts in September, October and December, which the central bank said were aimed at supporting a flagging labor market.

Federal Reserve

Iran scrambles inflation signals as Fed mulls interest rates

March 17, 2026 12:42 PM

By Maria Volkova

At the beginning of the year, inflation eased, dropping to 2.4% in January, down from around 2.7% in prior months, but still above the Fed's 2% goal.

Meanwhile, labor market data for January and February has sent mixed signals. Employers added 130,000 jobs in January, while 92,000 jobs were lost the following month. Under different circumstances, such figures might have prompted additional rate cuts to support growth and hiring.

But the persistently above-target inflation readings, driven in part by higher energy costs linked to the war in Iran, have made that outcome unlikely, at least until there is more data about how the impact of the conflict — as well as the ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy — will impact commodity prices in the longer term. Analysts expect these developments to be featured prominently in the committee's discussions.

"While the Iran conflict raises uncertainty in both directions and labor conditions potentially more fragile, we expect inflation dynamics and the potential for energy price pass‑through to command a slightly greater share of the Committee's focus and communication at this meeting," said Josh Hirt, senior economist at Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.

6 Posts

1h 1m ago

Powell acknowledges lack of consensus about SEP changes

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged during the Federal Open Market Committee press conference Wednesday that the committee did not decide to make any changes to its forward guidance process, saying there was a lack of consensus on the board about how to change Fed communications for the better.

The Fed embarked on an effort to make its economic communications more effective, including reconsidering how and whether to communicate FOMC members' longer-term views on the economy in its quarterly Statement of Economic Projections. But Powell said there was little agreement on how to change those processes.

"We looked carefully at many aspects of the SEP and our communications, and there just weren't any ideas that had very broad support on the committee," Powell said. "I had some things that I wanted to do, but they didn't attract broad support, and we'd already made the changes we made to the framework — that was a critical thing. I wish we had been able to do some things, but we didn't, so maybe the next chair will take a look. I'm sure he will."

1h 11m ago

Powell to stay on until successor confirmed, investigation dropped

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that he plans to remain at his post beyond the end of his term in May if a successor has not been confirmed by that time.

President Trump's choice to replace Powell, Kevin Warsh, has had his nomination put on hold in the Senate because Senate Banking Committee member Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he will not vote to confirm him until the Justice Department's investigation into Powell is concluded.

"That's what the law calls for," Powell said during the press conference Wednesday. "That's what the law calls for, that's what we've done on several occasions, including involving me, and that's what we're going to do in this situation."

Powell also addressed his intent to stay at the board until the Justice Department investigation is concluded.

"I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality," Powell noted. The Fed chair added that he has not made a final decision regarding whether he will serve as a governor after his term as chair ends, but said he will make that decision "based on what I think is best for the institution and the people we serve."

1h 23m ago

Powell: Future rate cuts contingent on inflation progress

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Bloomberg News

Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a post-FOMC press conference Wednesday highlighted that progress on inflation must take place before the market sees cuts to short-term interest rates.Powell said he expects to see progress on inflation in the middle of the year as effects of Trump's tariff regime make their way through the economy. The Fed chair added that the rate forecast for the coming year is contingent on the performance of the economy.

We should see some … progress on inflation. It should come, as we start to see … progress on tariffs, once they go through, inflation coming down," Powell said. "We should be seeing that. And the rate forecast is conditional on the performance of the economy. So if we don't see that progress, then you won't see the rate cut."

At the beginning of the year, inflation eased to 2.4% in January, down from around 2.7% in prior months, but still above the Fed's 2% goal.

1h 49m ago

FOMC economic projections suggest waning appetite for cuts

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Bloomberg News

In addition to keeping interest rates steady Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday released its summary of economic projections for the coming year — an anonymized collection of each member's view of where interest rates will land by year-end, as well as in following years.

The March SEP, sometimes known as the "dot plot," shows seven members expecting rates to remain at between 3.5% and 3.75% by the end of 2026. But another seven members said they expected rates to decline by 25 basis points by year-end. Another two members anticipated two rate cuts, another two expected 3 rate cuts, and a single member anticipated that rates would be a full percentage point lower at the end of 2026 than it was at the beginning.

That's a marked contrast with the December dot plot, which showed a much wider spectrum of outcomes with no clear majority for any one of them. The December projections for 2026 included three members expecting rates to rise by a quarter point, four members expecting no change, four expecting a 25 basis-point cut, four expecting a 50 basis point cut, two expecting a 75 basis point cut, one expecting a full percentage point cut and another one expecting a 1.5% interest rate cut over 2026. That wide spread seems to have concentrated into most members expecting either no rate cuts or a single rate cut over the course of the year.

2h 9m ago

FOMC keeps short-term interest rates steady, citing uncertainty

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep short-term interest rates on hold Wednesday, with only one dissent.

Fed Gov. Stephen Miran, who has pushed for substantial rate cuts since being confirmed in September voted against the action, preferring a 25 basis point reduction to interest rates.

The FOMC's decision to keep its target range for the policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% was expected by markets, as U.S. involvement in the war in Iran and fog surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies have clouded the outlook for monetary policy.

What came as a surprise is the lack of dissent on the FOMC. Some Fed watchers expected Fed Gov. Christopher Waller and/or Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman to join Miran in calling for less restrictive monetary policy.

In its policy statement, the committee said economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, but cited that uncertainty is starting to compound.

"The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain," the FOMC said in a press release Wednesday. "The committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."

At its January meeting, officials also left rates unchanged as they sought greater clarity on the economic outlook after three consecutive quarter-point cuts at the end of last year aimed at supporting the labor market.

2h 52m ago

FOMC decision comes just ahead of Basel III proposal

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, left, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman in 2025.

Bloomberg News

The Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting comes a day before its regulatory arm is set to release proposed changes to the bank regulatory capital framework.

The central bank is expected to issue two proposals Thursday addressing the global systemically important bank, or G-SIB, surcharge and the Basel III endgame implementation rule. The changes are expected to focus on adjusting input parameters and certain risk-weighting mechanisms rather than overall capital levels.

On March 12, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previewed the proposals, saying the effort has focused on making the capital framework more internally consistent.

She said changes to the Basel III framework would streamline risk-based capital rules by using a single set of calculations and better aligning requirements with risk, rather than requiring banks to run their balance sheets through both standardized models and their own internal models. Revisions to the G-SIB surcharge, she said, are intended to better capture risk.

"These changes to the capital framework eliminate overlapping requirements, right-size calibrations to match actual risk, and comprehensively address long-standing gaps in our prudential framework," Bowman said during an appearance at the Cato Institute. "The result is more efficient regulation and banks that are better positioned to support economic growth, while preserving safety and soundness."

Jaret Seiberg, financial policy analyst at TD Cowen, wrote in a memo earlier this week he expects the changes to be favorable for both large and regional banks, noting that G-SIB banks will benefit most from recalibrations of the surcharge. The rule's publication is likely to be followed by a 90-day comment period, suggesting the rule could be finalized in early 2027.

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