Federal Open Market Committee Press Conference: Live coverage

October 29, 2025 1:45 PM

The Federal Reserve's interest rate setting committee is expected to release its decision Wednesday afternoon about whether to lower rates, with most market watchers expecting a quarter-point cut.

The CME Fedwatch tool shows that 97.8% of investors have penciled in a 25 basis point cut, while 2.2% expect rates to remain unchanged. The Fed's current interest rate target is between 4% and 4.25%.

In recent months, Fed officials have expressed concern about a softening labor market as monthly jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have weakened. The October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee takes place without members considering the most recent BLS employment data, which was not released earlier this month because of the ongoing government shutdown.

Nonetheless, the BLS released its inflation report last week, which showed that inflation rose by 0.3% in September, moderately down after August's 0.4% gain.

Lackluster readings on inflation and the job market have led to general apathy among consumers toward a short-term interest rate cut. A report from WalletHub found that 59% of respondents said a quarter-point cut would not make a difference in their lives, while 41% said it would.

Wednesday's meeting is also significant because it will be Federal Reserve Governor Stephan Miran's second meeting since being sworn in as a Federal Reserve Board member in September. The meeting will also mark the second meeting for Fed Gov. Lisa Cook since the Trump administration launched its effort to remove her from the board.

Cook's lawsuit seeking to block President Donald Trump from removing her remains in limbo, as the Supreme Court has signaled it will review an injunction in January that has allowed her to stay at the Fed. After a decision on the injunction is made, the main portion of her case will proceed in a lower court.

8 Posts

2h 23m ago

Fed's Powell coy about bank capital reductions

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was noncommittal in giving details about long-awaited changes to the so-called Basel III framework.

Speaking at the FOMC press conference, Powell said he stood by comments made in 2020 that the level of bank capital in the system "was about right," but added that additional capital has been infused into the system since that time.

"There's been much capital added since [2020] through various mechanisms," said Powell. "I look forward to those discussions, which are really just getting going."

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said in mid-July that she is aiming to finalize the U.S. implementation of Basel III in the near future, giving a rough deadline of late 2025 or early 2026.

2h 34m ago

Powell not yet concerned about subprime write-offs

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that a recent uptick in delinquencies in subprime credit is something that the central bank is monitoring but not viewing as a broader economic issue.

Powell said at a Federal Open Market Committee press conference Wednesday that the Fed is watching credit conditions "very carefully" and acknowledged that rising defaults in subprime credit — notably in subprime auto loans — have been ticking upward "for some time now." But he said he didn't view those write-offs as necessarily part of a broader economic downturn.

"You've seen a number of subprime credit, automobile credit institutions having significant losses, and some of those losses are now showing up on the books of banks," Powell said. "We're looking at it carefully. We're paying close attention. I don't see at this point a broader credit issue. It doesn't seem to be something that has very broad application across financial institutions. But we're going to be monitoring this quite carefully and making sure that that is the case."

2h 51m ago

Powell: Federal shutdown could impact next FOMC vote

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the Federal Open Market Committee press conference Wednesday that it is possible that a prolonged government shutdown could impact the FOMC vote in December.

The Fed's rate-setting committee is currently relying on private data to gain insight into the employment rate and inflation, relying on companies like payroll services provider ADP to get a snapshot of what's happening in the labor market since the Bureau of Labor Statistics has ceased publishing data until the government reopens.

Powell said this is a "temporary state of affairs" and that the central bank is "collect[ing] every scrap of data" to understand what is happening in the market. He added that there is a possibility that a lack of official data could complicate making a decision in the FOMC's December meeting.

"I don't know how that's going to play into things," said Powell. "We may get the data, but there's a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving. "Powell reiterated that he is not confident whether the shutdown would actually impact the vote.

"I'm not committing to that. I'm just saying it's certainly a possibility that you would say we really can't see, so let's slow down," Powell added.

3h 9m ago

Powell: 2% inflation 'is where we're going'

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a Federal Open Market Committee press conference Wednesday that markets should take the central bank's commitment to drive inflation down to its 2% target as a real and credible goal, suggesting that the risks of rising inflation are weighing on the central bank.

Powell, responding to a question about inflation in the services sector, noted that the Fed's monetary policy stance is already "modestly restrictive" precisely in order to tame inflation, which spiked in 2021 and came down fairly rapidly, but has remained stubbornly above the Fed's 2% inflation target since then.

"We think policy is still modestly restrictive, in my telling," Powell said. "So that's the kind of thing that should lead to a gradually cooling economy. That's one of the reasons you see a gradually cooling labor market is because the Fed policy is modestly restrictive, so that should also help get [inflation down]."

Powell then took a moment to restate the Fed's view that inflation must be brought to heel, suggesting members of the FOMC may be weighing inflationary risks as greater than downside risks to the labor market from a slowing economy.

"I want to say, though: We're absolutely committed to returning inflation to 2%," Powell said. "If you look at longer-term surveys or market pricing, you will see that that's a credible commitment, and there should be no question that that's where we're going.

Powell: December cut 'not a foregone conclusion'

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that a cut to short-term interest rates in December is not guaranteed.

Speaking following the FOMC's meeting, Powell said that the central bank's monetary policy is "not on a preset course" and that there are "strongly differing views" among members regarding how the Fed's rate-setting committee should proceed in December.

"There were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December," Powell said. "A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion — in fact far from it." The Fed chair added that the FOMC will continue monitoring data related to its dual mandate to make its decision going forward.

Dissent among members of the FOMC regarding what the central bank should do with interest rates going forward has already floated to the surface, with two members dissenting against the 25 basis point reduction Wednesday. Fed Gov. Miran preferred the central bank cut rates by 50 basis points, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also dissented from the majority vote, but preferred for rates to stay the same.

Powell added that the dissents should indicate to markets that the near-term interest rate path is very much uncertain.

"They're very disparate views, and they were reflected in strongly different views in today's meeting, as I pointed out in my remarks," Powell said. "That's what leads me to say that … we haven't made a decision about December. I always say — and it's a fact — that we don't make decisions in advance, but this is something in addition here is, that it's not … it's not to be seen as a foregone conclusion."

Diverging dissents suggest difficult path ahead

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid

Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg

The Federal Open Market Committee's decision Wednesday to lower interest rates by 25 basis points was met with two dissents — one urging the central bank to lower interest rates even more, and another urging the central bank not to lower rates at all.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee typically operates by consensus, with members often working over the course of their two-day meetings to reach policy decisions that have broad buy-in across the committee. Dissenting votes are not unheard of, as evidenced by former Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George, who frequently dissented from the broader committee in the post-2008 recovery era.

Fed Gov. Stephen Miran — who joined the central bank just ahead of the September meeting and who is on leave from his other post as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers — dissented from Wednesday's decision because he would have preferred the central bank cut rates by 50 basis points. Miran has been vocal in recent months about his view that monetary policy is structurally too high given the onset of President Trump's immigration and tariff policies, and dissented at the September meeting for the same reason.

But Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid also dissented from the majority vote, but in precisely the opposite direction: he preferred no rate cut at the October meeting. Schmid's dissent suggests that dueling camps could be emerging on the FOMC — those who may side with Miran that the Fed's monetary policy stance is too restrictive, and those fearing that inflation must be kept in check.

Fed cuts rates by another 25 bps, citing labor market

Bloomberg News

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to cut short-term interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday, with recently confirmed Federal Reserve Gov. Stephan Miran and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid casting dissenting votes.

Miran preferred a 50 basis point cut, while Schmid wanted no change to the Fed's interest rate target.

The Fed's rate-setting committee's decision to lower the target range for the policy rate to between 3.75% and 4% was widely expected by investors, as Fed officials previously signaled that their attention was on the labor market, which has shown signs of softening.

This is FOMC's second rate cut in two months; the central bank cut interest rates by 25bps in September.

Though the most up-to-date data gauging the health of the labor market has not been released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, data from August show that a mere 22,000 jobs were added. The anemic job growth from August persuaded the FOMC to lower rates in September.

In a statement Wednesday, the FOMC said that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains, but that the "downside risk to employment rose in recent months," thus justifying lowering short-term interest rates.

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace," the FOMC wrote in its statement. "Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments."

Bringing down short-term interest rates usually stimulates the economy, though consumers on average feel apathetic about the outcome. A report by WalletHub found that 65% of Americans feel either indifferent or upset about the Fed cutting rates.

The Fed also announced that it will stop allowing securities on its balance sheet to mature on Dec. 1, thus signaling the end of its "quantitative tightening" program to draw down its balance sheet after engaging in quantitative easing at the onset of the Covid pandemic.

Forward guidance on the balance sheet

Bloomberg News

Market watchers expect the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday to announce when it will stop allowing securities on its balance sheet to mature.

Some economists are predicting the Fed will announce the end of "quantitative tightening," or QT, as soon as Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a recent speech that the central bank's "long-stated plan" is to stop balance sheet runoff in the coming months, depending on several factors, including liquidity conditions, which have shown signs of gradually tightening.

The Fed began engaging in "quantitative easing," or QE, at the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020, but quickly shifted tactics in mid-2022 in response to surging inflation by hiking interest rates up significantly and immediately reducing its balance sheet.

Critics say that the Fed's effort to bolster the housing market by purchasing mortgage-backed securities during the pandemic contributed to the growth of home prices and worsening affordability.

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twitter	JohnHeltman
mailto	john.heltman@arizent.com
linkedin	john-heltman-84b6b4a