Housing bill expected to become law — sooner or later

• Key insight: President Trump's decision to cancel a signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing bill earlier this week has likely delayed the bill's enactment rather than stopped it entirely.
• What's at stake: The housing bill is widely seen as an effort by congressional Republicans to show voters tangible progress on affordability, which is shaping up to be the critical issue in this year's midterm elections.
• Forward look: The Speaker of the House will reportedly send the bill to Trump on Monday, but it remains unclear whether the president intends to sign the bill, veto it or allow it to become law without his signature.

President Donald Trump's decision to cancel a signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing bill earlier this week has delayed the enactment of the bill, but is unlikely to kill it entirely, observers say.

When a law is passed by both chambers, it is then "enrolled," printed on parchment and presented to the president for his signature. Beginning at midnight after the bill has been enrolled, the president has 10 days to sign the bill or veto it. If he does neither, the bill becomes law without his signature, except if Congress adjourns during that 10-day window; in that case, the bill does not become law and must be taken up by the next Congress when it reconvenes.

But there are few rules around when the bill must be enrolled and sent to the president, and a question about whether the originating chamber — in this case, the House of Representatives — can stall the bill indefinitely by not sending it to the White House. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., said earlier this week that they would send the bill to the White House and that he expects the president to sign it.

"As you know, he has a window of time to sign a bill, and he's going to use a little bit more of that window of time, and we're going to go through this together," Johnson said on Wednesday. "It just passed last night. So 10 days is my estimation — he'll do it within that 10 day window."

Punchbowl news reported on Friday that Johnson's office says it will send the enrolled bill to the White House on Monday, meaning that the president will have until midnight on July 10 to sign or veto the bill. 

Trump himself said in a press gaggle this week that he thinks it is more important that interest rates go down to help the housing market than that the housing bill passes, adding an additional wrinkle to his opposition to the bill. When he canceled Wednesday's signing ceremony, he had said he wanted the SAVE Act — a law limiting mail-in voting and requiring voter ID, among other things — to pass first. The House has passed the bill, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has repeatedly said that there are insufficient votes to pass the bill in the upper chamber.

Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen, said there are more ways for the housing bill to become law than not, and noted that there are more reasons for Trump and Republicans to enact the bill rather than defeat it. 

"Pressure will grow on Trump to back this bill as GOP lawmakers worry about reelection," Seiberg said. "As rates are unlikely to drop, Trump will likely want to do something. Signing this bill is the path of least resistance."

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Johnson himself remarked that he also hoped that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates to help homebuyers, but said the bill will sell itself to the president once he learns of all of its merits.

"The housing bill is a great product. … The president, when we go through the details of the bill, he's going to understand that it's a good product," Johnson said on Wednesday. "Interest rates are another big priority of his and all of ours, and I think the new Fed chair will do that."

Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, said in an analyst note that Trump has already threatened not to sign other bills until the SAVE Act passes, and has backed down from that threat. 

"Trump had said previously that he won't sign any bills until SAVE is passed, but two weeks ago signed the Secure America bill providing funding to ICE and the Border Patrol," Katz said. "As long as Congress is in session, the bill will become law in about two weeks if Trump doesn't sign or veto it." 

Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of the proponents of the bill, has already begun framing the continued delays as proof that Trump and his fellow Republicans are not focused on bringing down costs.  

"We're here today to say Democrats are committed to lowering costs for American families," Warren said at a press conference Wednesday afternoon. "Just keep in mind — Donald Trump promised on day one that he would lower costs for American families. Donald Trump may not care, but Democrats do."