Economic news

The American Bankers Association's latest credit conditions indices show that economists at major banks are feeling more confident about commercial lending in 2024 — but they stop far short of a ringing endorsement.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr Wednesday downplayed the significance of recent turmoil at New York Community Bank, noting that liquidity and stability in the banking system is in "much better shape than it was last spring."

The global debt crisis requires sustained attention from leaders and institutions in the U.S. Failure to address it will doom untold millions of people to suffering.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates three times this year, some say as early as March, if data alllow those moves. Following the Jan. 30-31 FOMC meeting, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, will provide his take on the meeting and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

Bankers during recent earnings reports predicted lower deposit costs as 2024 wears on. But with inflation still elevated and the jobs market strong, the Federal Reserve probably won't begin lowering rates — and thus easing the drag on lenders' profits — until May at the earliest.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that a rate cut is coming, but cast doubt about whether the central bank would see enough data suggesting inflation is sufficiently tamed for interest rates to come down at their next meeting.

Bank leaders have a rosier outlook about economic conditions over the coming year than they did three months ago, according to a new survey of industry executives.

Despite widespread impressions that the economy is proving resilient and a "soft landing" is possible, banks are decidedly pessimistic about the economy.

John Williams, who also serves as vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, does not expect the Federal Reserve to slow its balance sheet runoff anytime soon.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and former manager of the central bank's open market account said a slower approach to balance sheet reduction may be warranted sooner rather than later.

Federal Reserve officials point to overnight reverse repurchase agreement activity as an indication of excess liquidity, which the central bank is working to reduce. But some analysts say that excess liquidity may be drying up faster than expected, with important implications for banks.

Executives at America's largest banks are making rosier predictions about the financial health of U.S. households than they were a year ago, when their forecasts proved to be overly pessimistic.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Dec. 12 and 13 and in addition to their statement, they will issue a Summary of Economic Projections.

The Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections probably won't offer the 130 basis points of cuts next year that the market expects.

The Federal Home Loan Bank System is a crucial element of our financial infrastructure. All stakeholders should be included in discussions about reforming it.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. Join us as Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist and managing director at BMO Economics, breaks down the latest FOMC meeting.

Bankers are hopeful that several factors could strengthen profits next year, including higher loan demand and more stable funding costs as the Fed holds the line on — or even lowers — interest rates.

A key gauge of activity that tracks startups most likely to create jobs declined in October, potentially signaling the start of a slowdown after the rapid increase in interest rates. It presents a red flag for community banks and credit unions that are major lenders to small businesses.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Federal Reserve and other banking regulators rolled out their annual adjustments for the thresholds that determine whether activities are eligible for enhanced standards.

Superintendent Harris led the takeover of Signature Bank after it failed this spring. She joins Editor-in-Chief Chana Schoenberger to reflect on the lessons of this year's banking crisis, and how she is modernizing supervision.