Interest rates

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January Consumer Price Index Friday, showing that inflation rose 0.2%, while the annual rate eased to 2.4% after holding at 2.7% for several months. The data reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near future. 

In a future world where AI agents transacting in stablecoins are a major factor in the U.S. economy, the Fed's traditional metrics for identifying an economic downturn will leave policymakers dangerously behind the curve.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said recent data suggests less tension between the employment and inflation sides of the central bank's dual mandate, reducing the need for an immediate policy change.

As the Federal Open Market Committee announces its near-term interest rate plans Wednesday, market watchers expect the central bank to hold interest rates steady as policymakers seek greater clarity on the health of the economy.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned that labor market conditions could weaken further and said the central bank should avoid signaling a pause in monetary policy.

A week after President Trump demanded a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, top executives at big banks protested the idea in blunt terms.

Employers added 50,000 jobs in December, with gains in service industries while broader sectors remained mostly flat, supporting the Fed's cautious stance on further rate cuts.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on CNBC that both sides of the central bank's dual mandate show signs of imbalance, with the labor market appearing more vulnerable.

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in statements Friday that their dissents from this week's interest rate decision were spurred by inflation concerns and a lack of sufficient economic data.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a press conference after the December FOMC meeting, said the central bank is holding interest rates steady until it gets more clarity on the economy.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but where the central bank goes from here is an open question.

Federal Reserve watchers expect a board of governors vote in February to reappoint the 12 regional Fed bank presidents — which is typically treated as a formality — to be the next flashpoint in the White House's effort to bring the central bank to heel.

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said in a speech Monday that private and public-sector data suggests that the labor market is continuing to weaken, making a 25 basis point rate cut in December a prudent choice.

Fed Gov. Stephan Miran has spent his short tenure at the central bank arguing that disinflation in housing and immigration reforms will tamp down inflation in the near term. But other economists say the timing, degree and context of those effects is very much in question.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said emerging stresses in housing and private credit markets warrant a reduction to short-term interest rates. While preferring a 50 basis point cut in December, Miran said he would settle for a 25 basis point reduction.

In her first public appearance since President Trump moved to fire her from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Fed Gov. Lisa Cook reiterated her commitment to bringing inflation under 2% and said that the labor market remains "solid."

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday, but the emergence of dissents on the committee makes the chance of another quarter-point cut in December less certain.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting body is expected to announce a 25 basis point cut and provide guidance on the trajectory of its balance sheet Wednesday afternoon.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce guidance on the end of its quantitative tightening program later Wednesday. As that process draws to a close, experts are questioning when and how the central bank should use its balance sheet to smooth economic stress in the future.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran said Thursday that the central bank's forays into examining climate change and racial justice under the prior administration politicized the Fed. He also argued that Fed officials should limit their comments on economic policies such as tariffs.