Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will make no change to its policy rate in March. All eyes are on what comes next for the central bank amid heightened economic uncertainty.

In a positive sign for the economy, headline inflation slowed in February. But the reading alone likely is not enough to break the Federal Open Market Committee out of its wait-and-see mode.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for patience amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's policies, saying there would be no immediate rate changes but that the Fed would proceed carefully.

Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman, one of the central bank's more inflation-wary officials, said the balance of risks for monetary policymaking could soon shift.

Employers added 151,000 employees in February and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. The reading bolsters the Federal Reserve's argument to hold rates steady amid economic uncertainty.

A March 2025 survey by the National Association for Business Economics shows growing inflation concerns — and a diminishing chance of rate cuts — in 2025, but also optimism about avoiding a recession.

Notably, Trump described the January decision to hold rates steady – which looks set to be the Fed's stance for some time — as "the right thing to do."

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation index showed little progress toward its target of 2%, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged rate pause.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said clearer Fed communication and better text analysis has made monetary policy transmission more efficient, but noted that the central bank must remain diligent in how it communicates forward monetary policy guidance.

Mike Goosay, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at Principal Asset Management, breaks down the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Chair Powell's press conference and the SEP.

The Federal Reserve chair delivers his first semiannual monetary policy report of the 119th Congress, where he is expected to be asked about Fed independence and the economic impacts of Trump administration's policy choices.

Employers added fewer workers than anticipated last month, but upward revisions to previous estimates drove down the jobless rate. The report gives no clear directive to the Federal Reserve, which put rate cuts on hold last month.

As the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement program nears zero, pressure could mount on the central bank to slow or stop its asset runoff as it fights inflation.

The president's rough-and-tumble trade negotiations have throttled financial markets, causing investors to flock to the safety of dollars and Treasuries. But some economists say this style of policymaking could have hurt the U.S.'s safe haven status in the long run.

A former senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Board was arrested and charged with economic espionage for conspiring to steal trade secrets and sell them to China for $450,000.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy group is expected to hold rates steady, but the chairman will face a litany of questions about the year ahead and on the inflationary impact of implications of the Trump administration's early policy moves.

With the Federal Reserve touting a slower pace of easing, markets are expecting a longer pause. But Gov. Christopher Waller said the next interest rate reduction could come as soon as March because of inflation data.

The Labor Department estimates the economy added 256,000 jobs in December, indicating a resilient economy and labor market. For the Federal Reserve, which was already signaling a slowdown in rate cuts, the reading could justify holding rates steady.

Seen by many as a logical pick for the Federal Reserve's next vice chair for supervision, Gov. Michelle Bowman wants the institution to focus on safety and soundness issues, tailoring and transparency.

In a Wednesday morning speech, the Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said President-elect Donald Trump's nascent trade policy will likely lead to a one-time jump in prices rather than broader inflationary pressure. He also said he expects further interest rate cuts in 2025.