Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve's independence in setting monetary policy is critical to global confidence in U.S. markets and the dollar's status as reserve currency of choice. Making those functions constitutionally separate from the executive branch is the best way to ensure that independence.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation held steady at 2.6% for the third month in a row, a positive reading that increases the odds of a September rate cut.

The stock prices of banks that have large exposure to commercial real estate loans surged after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His remarks could be a sign that relief is coming on both sides of those banks' balance sheets.

In his speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Fed chair said employment losses are now a bigger risk than elevated inflation.

"Fed watchers will be parsing Powell's comments for signs that a 50bp rate cut is on the table for September," noted Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics. "However, the notoriously tight-lipped chair is unlikely to confirm this, making a 25bp cut the most likely outcome."

Over the weekend Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, said setting interest rates should be a "political decision" with input from elected officials.

As the 2024 election season once again puts the Federal Reserve's independence under a microscope, some observers see a weakness in one of the landmark policy arrangements that undergird the financial system as we know it.

Gary Quinzel, vice president of portfolio consulting at Wealth Enhancement Group, gives his views about monetary policy and offers his opinion on the FOMC statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said that economic data seems to indicate that the economy will achieve a so-called "soft landing" but said he would like to see additional data before the central bank cuts interest rates.

The Federal Reserve chairman has two years left in his term, which he will serve regardless of who occupies the White House. Powell's term on the Fed Board of Governors expires in 2028.

The central bank also noted that the banking system is sound but faces several challenges. The report precedes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming appearances on Capitol Hill.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says crushing inflation is the most important thing the Fed can do to reduce costs in the housing market. Some economists and policy specialists say higher rates are not the only tool at its disposal.

The Federal Reserve chair said a rate cut would not solve the underlying issues driving up shelter costs, even as housing becomes a disproportionate driver of inflation.

In a speech, the Federal Reserve governor said she would have liked to see the Federal Open Market Committee move more quickly to reduce its holdings. The central bank is poised to begin slowing the pace of balance sheet runoff this week.

Large banks, particularly those with over $100 billion in assets, see increasing supervisory shortcomings related to interest rate and liquidity risks, governance and risk control issues, and cite cybersecurity, CRE values, and remote work trends as potential hazards in the future.

During this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, officials voted to lower the cap on the amount of Treasury securities that can roll off the central bank's books each month from $60 billion to $25 billion.

Banks and other financial market participants have been keyed into the central bank's communications around monetary policy expectations. But in an unpredictable economy, the guidance doesn't always hit the mark.

Recent economic data have shown inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, putting rate cuts in jeopardy. Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics, parses the FOMC meeting, Chair Powell's press conference and takes a look at future policy.

According to the Federal Reserve Board's latest financial stability report, persistent inflation and policy uncertainty are the primary worries for banks. Survey respondents expressed heightened anxiety over murky policy outlooks due to geopolitical turmoil and rapidly approaching domestic elections.

The Federal Reserve, historically a secretive and isolated institution, has made a concerted effort to explain itself to and be understood by the public since 2008. But try as it might, the central bank is still viewed by many as an enigma, if not an enemy.