Monetary policy

In a speech, the Federal Reserve governor said she would have liked to see the Federal Open Market Committee move more quickly to reduce its holdings. The central bank is poised to begin slowing the pace of balance sheet runoff this week.

Large banks, particularly those with over $100 billion in assets, see increasing supervisory shortcomings related to interest rate and liquidity risks, governance and risk control issues, and cite cybersecurity, CRE values, and remote work trends as potential hazards in the future.

During this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, officials voted to lower the cap on the amount of Treasury securities that can roll off the central bank's books each month from $60 billion to $25 billion.

Banks and other financial market participants have been keyed into the central bank's communications around monetary policy expectations. But in an unpredictable economy, the guidance doesn't always hit the mark.

Recent economic data have shown inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, putting rate cuts in jeopardy. Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics, parses the FOMC meeting, Chair Powell's press conference and takes a look at future policy.

According to the Federal Reserve Board's latest financial stability report, persistent inflation and policy uncertainty are the primary worries for banks. Survey respondents expressed heightened anxiety over murky policy outlooks due to geopolitical turmoil and rapidly approaching domestic elections.

The Federal Reserve, historically a secretive and isolated institution, has made a concerted effort to explain itself to and be understood by the public since 2008. But try as it might, the central bank is still viewed by many as an enigma, if not an enemy.

A federal judge's ruling in the Custodia lawsuit settles — for now — the question of whether the Federal Reserve has the discretion to grant or deny a bank access to its payment settlement system. But to keep it, the Fed needs to articulate the danger it's protecting against.

D.A. Davidson Director of Wealth Management Research James Ragan will review and analyze the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at the Federal Open Market Committee press conference Wednesday that a slower pace of reduction could help the central bank avoid shrinking its holdings further without disrupting the banking system.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr Wednesday downplayed the significance of recent turmoil at New York Community Bank, noting that liquidity and stability in the banking system is in "much better shape than it was last spring."

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates three times this year, some say as early as March, if data alllow those moves. Following the Jan. 30-31 FOMC meeting, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, will provide his take on the meeting and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that a rate cut is coming, but cast doubt about whether the central bank would see enough data suggesting inflation is sufficiently tamed for interest rates to come down at their next meeting.

Despite widespread impressions that the economy is proving resilient and a "soft landing" is possible, banks are decidedly pessimistic about the economy.

John Williams, who also serves as vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, does not expect the Federal Reserve to slow its balance sheet runoff anytime soon.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and former manager of the central bank's open market account said a slower approach to balance sheet reduction may be warranted sooner rather than later.

Federal Reserve officials point to overnight reverse repurchase agreement activity as an indication of excess liquidity, which the central bank is working to reduce. But some analysts say that excess liquidity may be drying up faster than expected, with important implications for banks.

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Dec. 12 and 13 and in addition to their statement, they will issue a Summary of Economic Projections.

The Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections probably won't offer the 130 basis points of cuts next year that the market expects.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. Join us as Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist and managing director at BMO Economics, breaks down the latest FOMC meeting.