Blinder Sees Radical Shrinkage in Number of Banks - and Isn't Worried

TUCSON, Ariz. - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Alan Blinder predicted Monday that the ranks of commercial banks would be thinned by 40% to about 6,000 banks by the year 2010.

In a speech to the U.S. Council on International Banking here, Mr. Blinder said his forecast of the on-going industry consolidation was based on Fed "guesstimates."

"That leaves us with 5,000 to 7,000 banks," Mr. Blinder said, asserting that he was not worried about this year's wave of bank mergers.

"As long as they're driven by cost efficiencies," he added. "But we're a long, long way from worrying about a national concentration in banking."

Mr. Blinder also told bankers that he did not foresee any sweeping restructuring among the four federal banking regulators in the near-term. But industry consolidation, he said, is likely to lead to an eventual reevaluation of supervisory roles.

"As the industry that you're trying to regulate evolves ... the regulatory structure must also evolve with it," Mr. Blinder said.

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