Exchange Chairman Predicts Slowdown for U.S. Economy

Fallout from Asia will slow economic growth in the United States and cause continued volatility in the U.S. stock markets this year, the chairman of the American Stock Exchange said.

"This situation in Asia is more than a bump in the road, but not a crater," Richard F. Syron, who is also chief executive officer of the nation's second-largest stock exchange, said Monday at a luncheon of the Institute of International Bankers in New York.

Mr. Syron, an economist by training who served as chairman of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank from 1989 to 1994, said the Asian flu could knock three-quarters to 1 percentage point off U.S. gross domestic product growth this year. But he estimated growth in the GDP would still come in within the Federal Reserve's target range of 2.0% to 2.5%.

Mr. Syron expressed confidence that the impact of the crisis on U.S. corporate earnings and share prices would be minimal, but said news of developments in the troubled markets would continue to cause dramatic gyrations in the major U.S. stock indexes.

Mr. Syron said the Asian crisis is similar to the savings and loan and commercial real estate crises in the United States, in that it stemmed from poor underwriting of loans, speculative development, and lax supervision. "The impact could be worse, if it's not handled properly," he added.

The difference between the earlier crises and the Asian situation lies in the complexity of the new international tumult and the speed with which transactions now take place, Mr. Syron said.

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