Adam Mustafa

The probability of a trade war-induced recession is unclear and fluctuates almost daily. However, the possibility is real enough that banks have a responsibility to prepare for a serious economic downturn on par with the 2008 financial crisis.

There is a tendency to assume that banks carrying a large commercial real estate loan portfolio need to diversify. But that ignores the fact that many of those institutions have much deeper knowledge of the market than their critics.

The quarterly filings ought to include far more detailed breakdowns of banks' commercial real estate loan portfolios, including the crucial distinction between owner-occupied properties and rentals.

The Federal Reserve's models assume interest rates will decline if the economy falls into a recession, but as big banks prepare for their annual stress tests, they should also be considering the impact of rising rates and higher inflation on their operations.