Bank Stats

The pace of deal activity in 2024 is ahead of a year earlier, thanks in large part to summer momentum and a spate of all-stock deals. But an early August market rout created a new hurdle for dealmaking in the second half of the year.

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index was up 18% year to date through July, supporting expectations for more banks to use their shares as currency to take out competitors.

There were 27 bank acquisitions worth $5.45 billion announced in the second quarter as of mid-June. That was more than the $5.2 billion combined value of deals announced over the previous five quarters.

Bank mergers and acquisitions have slowed in recent years amid recession fears and other economic uncertainties. But bank consolidation is a century-old trend that's expected to rev up again as early as this year due to higher costs, tougher regulation and fierce competition.

Bank M&A activity has been in the doldrums in recent years, but a number of CEOs are predicting an increase in bank consolidation in 2024.

Senior loan officers recently told the Federal Reserve that loan demand weakened and underwriting tightened last quarter, but both at a slower pace than three months earlier. They anticipate demand for credit will improve, especially in the back half of the year — provided rates begin to fall.

Just weeks ago, prospects seemed strong for bank stocks to regain ground after a volatile 2023. But renewed credit concerns stemming from issues at New York Community Bancorp, and the increasing odds that interest rates will remain high for months, have dampened that outlook.

Surging interest rates, recession threats and weaker stock valuations bogged down merger-and-acquisition activity last year. The 98 announced deals fell short of even 2020, when the pandemic briefly brought the economy to a standstill.

A resilient economy and the potential for interest rate cuts could infuse further bullish sentiment into markets and bolster the shares of small lenders.

Total loans at U.S. banks with less than $10 billion of assets grew by 1.9% in the third quarter, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. That was a slowdown from the previous quarter, and concerns about the viability of commercial real estate lending could dampen activity further.

Amid intense regulatory scrutiny, market volatility and economic uncertainty, 10 bank M&A deals have been scrubbed so far this year after 13 were scuttled last year. Deal activity has risen slightly lately, but the new normal is hard to gauge.

A Piper Sandler poll found that 91% of respondents believe that either a mild or severe recession is already reflected in banks' shares. The survey also unveiled that market participants remain concerned mostly about credit quality and aftershocks from surging interest rates.

Eighteen banks announced agreements to sell themselves last month. It was the most active month for bank deals since July 2022.