Week Ahead: Fed Likely to Raise Rates and New Notices from NCUA

This week looks to be light on the compliance front for credit unions, though credit unions still have plenty to keep their eyes on.

As insiders analyze Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's additions to her reg relief plan for credit unions and small businesses, the Federal Reserve inches closer to a possible rate hike in September and the NCUA posts two new information collection plans to the Federal Register.

Two New Information Requests from NCUA
The National Credit Union Administration released two notices Monday morning on the Federal Register regarding proposed plans affecting information collection by the regulator. The first notice concerns the NCUA's current collection policies regarding credit union service organizations (CUSOs).

CUSO information collection has recently been partially transferred to the CUSO Registry portal. To avoid doubling up on submittals the NCUA is removing the CUSO identification section from the Call Report and Profile functions. The comment period for this notice closes on Sept. 28.

Secondly, the NCUA released a notice and request for comment regarding information collection procedures for its Office of Minority and Women Inclusion (OMWI). Through the Contractor Profile form, the NCUA aims to determine if an institution's procedures ensure fair inclusion and utilization of minorities, women, minority-owned and women-owned businesses.

Individuals are invited to submit comments regarding the necessity of the collection, the accuracy of the agency's estimated burden, ways to enhance the quality of the information collected and ways to minimize the burden of the collection. The comment period for this notice closes on October 28.

Chance of September Rate Hike Increasing
At the Kansas City Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen hinted at a possible interest rate increase during the month of September. "In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months," Yellen said.

NAFCU Chief Economist Curt Long suggested Yellen's comments fit with what economists have claimed for the last quarter: the economy is getting to a point where a rate hike is warranted. "The odds still favor a rate hike in Q4, but September is quickly nearing a coin-flip proposition," Long said.

Citing a "robust" jobs reports, a lack of impact from Brexit and the August employment numbers, Long said these are signs pointing to a rate hike in the near future, challenging the views of those "who may be expected to offer resistance to a move in the third quarter."

These statements come on the heels of Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer's comments suggesting the central bank was close to its inflation and jobs targets.