A day is a lifetime in politics, and each day political campaigns witness a lot. Pundits may think they have things figured out and that "conventional wisdom" will carry the day.
But the landscape of American politics is littered with unusual outcomes, surprise elections, and sleeper candidates who unexpectedly topple incumbents or favored candidates. This year in particular challenges the norms with Donald Trump securing the Republican nomination for president of the United States.
Conventional wisdom suggests that this is Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's election to lose. But in this era of disruption, we may see conventional wisdom upended and a Trump victory in November.
There are two paths to the presidency for Clinton and Trump. I will outline what those paths look like but will not make a prediction as to where the election ends.
After Trump's acceptance speech, Paul Manafort, who was essentially serving as Trump's campaign manager, was asked about national polling and Trump's standing with various segments of the population. Manafort correctly redirected the line of questioning by saying this is not a national election but rather a series of state-by-state elections to win enough votes in the Electoral College. Thus, they are only focused on the citizens in the states they view as key to winning the 270 electoral votes necessary to become president.
Any Republican candidate starts with a base of states that they should carry — regardless of who the Democratic candidate is — totaling 164 Electoral College votes. Those states include Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).
While Trump has fewer paths to secure 270 Electoral College votes, he has options for cobbling together another 96 Electoral College votes. Let's start with two states not in the Republican "base" but which should go for the Republican candidate–Arizona (11) and Georgia (16). That leaves Trump just 79 electoral votes short.
Trump's message around creating manufacturing jobs, rebuilding infrastructure, and railing against "bad" trade deals is resonating with a fair number of blue collar workers–regardless of party affiliation. If Trump can appeal to enough voters in the swing states of Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), and Ohio (18), he will garner as many as 50 Electoral College votes.
Trump's selection of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate has helped assuage the skepticism of many mainstream Republicans. If Trump and Pence can shore up the Republican establishment, that could clear a path to victory for them in the states of North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Florida (29).
Trump is also appealing to voters in Pennsylvania (20) and Minnesota (10). Keep in mind Minnesota voters elected professional wrestler and reality TV star Jesse Ventura as their governor in 1998. Winning either of those states will allow Trump to lose battleground states like Ohio or build on his margin of victory.
The options are fewer for certain, but when you look at the states in play there are reasonable paths to victory for Trump.
For Clinton, the math is a lot easier. The Democrats have what we call "the big blue wall" of states any Democratic candidate should win, which totals 204 Electoral College votes. Those states include California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Washington, D.C. (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Minnesota (10), and New Mexico (5).
Clinton has many more options for putting together wins in swing states to gain an additional 66 Electoral College votes. Her top targets would certainly include Florida (29), Virginia (13), and Ohio (18). The basic message she needs to convey is she is ready and prepared to be president on Day One and Trump is not. If she can convince voters in those states that she is the safer, more stable choice, the election is over and she is our next president.
If she wins those, she just needs 6 additional Electoral College votes. Those could be easily gained from various combinations of the remaining battleground states of Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), and Colorado (9).
Watching this election play out will make an interesting fall. Either way, history will be made by either electing the first female president or electing a president with no prior electoral or significant military leadership experience. Regardless, our connections and outreach will have credit unions well positioned to engage with either administration.
Enjoy the ride.
Rich Meade is Chief of Staff and Chief Operating Officer of the Credit Union National Association.
