WASHINGTON — The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its monetary policy decision Wednesday, with markets unanimous in their expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged.
If the committee decides to stay put, it would mark the third consecutive meeting in which the central bank has held policy steady, following three straight quarter-point rate cuts late last year aimed at supporting the labor market.
The ongoing Iran war has shifted attention away from employment and toward the potential impact of the conflict on headline inflation, and whether those pressures could spill over into core inflation — a scenario policymakers are seeking to avoid.
But the meeting and its decision on interest rates are unlikely to be the center of attention. The post-meeting press conference is likely to be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's last one, as his term as chair expires on May 15 and the next FOMC meeting is slated for June 16-17. By that time, Powell's chosen successor, former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh, will likely have been confirmed by the full Senate. By coincidence, a vote on Warsh's nomination was held earlier in the day in the Senate Banking Committee, with the committee approving his nomination along party lines by a vote of 13-11.
The next step is a full Senate vote on his confirmation, which some analysts believe will take place the week of May 11.
One of the last unknown elements of Powell's tenure is whether it is truly coming to a close. By tradition, outgoing Fed chairs resign from their unexpired terms as Fed Governors, but it is not required and there is some precedent for outgoing Fed chairs to stay on. Powell's term as Fed Governor expires in January 2028, and he has consistently declined to say one way or the other whether he plans to remain at the central bank.
Powell did say at the March FOMC press conference that he would remain at the Fed until the Department of Justice drops its inquiry into him over renovation costs at the central bank's headquarters. The DOJ recently obliged, with U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro saying April 24 that the agency would drop its investigation, but retains the right to reopen it depending on the outcome of an Inspector General report on cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed's DC headquarters. That decision cleared the way for a confirmation vote on Warsh.
But whether Powell is satisfied with the finality of the DOJ's investigation is uncertain. Powell said in March that he would remain at the board until the DOJ investigation is "well and truly over, with transparency and finality," and all eyes will be on him to see whether he offers any clue about his timetable for exiting the Fed.