Federal Open Market Committee press conference: Live coverage

Jerome P
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Bloomberg News

WASHINGTON — The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its monetary policy decision Wednesday, with markets unanimous in their expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged.

If the committee decides to stay put, it would mark the third consecutive meeting in which the central bank has held policy steady, following three straight quarter-point rate cuts late last year aimed at supporting the labor market.

The ongoing Iran war has shifted attention away from employment and toward the potential impact of the conflict on headline inflation, and whether those pressures could spill over into core inflation — a scenario policymakers are seeking to avoid.

But the meeting and its decision on interest rates are unlikely to be the center of attention. The post-meeting press conference is likely to be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's last one, as his term as chair expires on May 15 and the next FOMC meeting is slated for June 16-17. By that time, Powell's chosen successor, former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh, will likely have been confirmed by the full Senate. By coincidence, a vote on Warsh's nomination was held earlier in the day in the Senate Banking Committee, with the committee approving his nomination along party lines by a vote of 13-11.

The next step is a full Senate vote on his confirmation, which some analysts believe will take place the week of May 11.

One of the last unknown elements of Powell's tenure is whether it is truly coming to a close. By tradition, outgoing Fed chairs resign from their unexpired terms as Fed Governors, but it is not required and there is some precedent for outgoing Fed chairs to stay on. Powell's term as Fed Governor expires in January 2028, and he has consistently declined to say one way or the other whether he plans to remain at the central bank.

Powell did say at the March FOMC press conference that he would remain at the Fed until the Department of Justice drops its inquiry into him over renovation costs at the central bank's headquarters. The DOJ recently obliged, with U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro saying April 24 that the agency would drop its investigation, but retains the right to reopen it depending on the outcome of an Inspector General report on cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed's DC headquarters. That decision cleared the way for a confirmation vote on Warsh. 

But whether Powell is satisfied with the finality of the DOJ's investigation is uncertain. Powell said in March that he would remain at the board until the DOJ investigation is "well and truly over, with transparency and finality," and all eyes will be on him to see whether he offers any clue about his timetable for exiting the Fed.

6 Posts
5m ago

Fed's Powell: Communication could change going forward

powell-dc-yearend-2020.jpeg
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that press conferences held after every FOMC meeting have been "quite helpful," as a way to condense the wide range of views on the board. But said he's not sure whether that has to remain the industry norm.

"During the pandemic we were moving a lot at every meeting — sometimes between meetings — and without a press conference, I think it would have been quite challenging," he said. "It's become an industry norm. That's the standard.

"I don't know whether that has to remain that way," he said. 

Powell's commentary comes as market watchers expect Kevin Warsh, once confirmed as the successor, to change the communication strategies of the central bank, including trimming the amount of press conferences. 

"Right now, press conferences are held periodically," Warsh said during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. "If you ask me my true personal opinion, right now, Fed chairs and other central bankers around the FOMC, they speak quite frequently. There is no lack of transparency. But I would say this, I think truth-seeking is more important than repetition."
12m ago

Powell sanguine about hawkish dissents

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Bloomberg News
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee press conference that the three dissents from members of the FOMC concerning the committee's policy statement were not indicative of a broader split on inflation and interest rates.

"The three dissenters — and others who were nonvoters and preferred it — they all supported the rate decision," Powell said. "People are not saying, 'We need to hike now.' It's more of a question of, 'Don't we feel that we should be neutral?'"

Powell added that the FOMC statement is a form of forward guidance to markets, and the discussion of what to include and what stance to take in the FOMC statement is a legitimate debate.

"It's a very fair question but these changes … it's a form of forward guidance, and you want to make them in a way that is sustained and continues to make sense, not something that you need to take back," he said. 
22m ago

Powell to remain on Fed Board 'for a time' after chair term ends

Jerome Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Bloomberg News
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will remain as a governor "for a time," until he is certain that no legal action will be taken against him by the Department of Justice. 

During the post-Federal Open Market Committee press conference on Wednesday, Powell said the Department of Justice has provided assurances that they will not reopen the case, words that Powell said were encouraging, but had not necessarily convinced him that he could safely depart the central bank. 

Powell said he would keep a "low profile" on the Fed Board. 

"The Department of Justice provided assurances that they will not reopen the investigation unless there's a criminal referral from the Fed's Inspector General, and absent such a referral, if they do appeal the recent court decision, they would not seek as part of that appeal to restart the investigation or send news," said Powell. "I said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality. I'm encouraged by recent developments, and I'm watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."

Powell reiterated that he is "literally staying because of the action," noting that the last three months have left him with "no choice" but to stay. "I will leave when I think it is appropriate to do so," he said.

The DOJ announced on April 24 that it would drop its investigation, but retains the right to reopen it depending on the outcome of an Inspector General report on cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed's DC headquarters.  
52m ago

Markets fall slightly on hawkish dissents

Jerome Powell traders Wall Street
Bloomberg News
The major market indices fell on the news that four members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented from the majority statement, with three of four dissents coming from regional Fed bank presidents who thought the majority statement included an "easing bias," suggesting the Fed's future moves would be to cut rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 110 points in the minutes following the FOMC's announcement, while the S&P 500 fell about 20 basis points before rebounding. The KBW Bank index of publicly traded banks had a modest decline on the news. 

Market watchers had been almost universally expecting the FOMC to keep interest rates steady, and may have even expected a dissent from Fed Gov. Stephen Miran, who has been advocating for interest rate cuts at every meeting and called for a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday. But the three dissents from the presidents of the Minneapolis, Dallas and Cleveland Regional Fed banks was not expected. Those members said that the FOMC statement's reference to "the extent and timing of additional adjustment" amounted to forward guidance that the next move the Fed makes will be downward.
1h 20m ago

FOMC votes to keep rates unchanged, but with four dissents

Neel Kashkari, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, one of three Federal Open Market Committee members to dissent from the committee's statement Wednesday because of a perceived "easing bias."
Bloomberg News
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-4 to keep interest rates on hold for a third consecutive time.The last time the FOMC had four dissents was over three decades ago, in October 1992.

Fed Gov. Stephen Miran voted against the action, preferring a 25 basis point reduction to interest rates. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan all supported keeping rates unchanged, but disagreed with the official statement, which, they said, implied that future policy easing was under consideration.

The phrasing at issue in the Fed's statement concerns "the extent and timing of additional adjustment to the target range for the federal funds rate," a statement that those FOMC members said amounts to an "easing bias" which they did not support, according to the FOMC's release. 

The decision to keep its target range at between 3.5% and 3.75% was expected by markets, but the large number of dissents — specifically by the three Fed regional presidents — was not, and could suggest a more hawkish tone forming among some Fed officials.

Going forward, the U.S. involvement in the Iran war and the duration of the conflict will likely play a notable role in monetary policy setting by the central bank.

"Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook," the FOMC's press release read. "The committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."
1h 55m ago

What to expect from the next Fed chair

Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to serve as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, during his confirmation hearing April 21.
Bloomberg News
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, has repeatedly said he would act independently in setting monetary policy and not be swayed by the president's preferences.

"The president never, generally or specifically, instructed me or suggested I should commit to any interest rate path whatsoever," Warsh said. "I will be an independent actor if confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve."

If confirmed, Warsh would step into a complex economic environment. Inflation is showing signs of accelerating, driven in part by higher gas prices linked to the war in Iran, while employment growth has begun to stall. The Fed-chair elect may also face pressure from the White House to lower rates. Wall Street will watch Warsh closely on how he manages this dynamic.

On Fed independence, Warsh during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee said that the central bank is not autonomous in issues outside of monetary policy, including in bank regulation. He also signaled potential changes to how the Fed communicates policy. 

"Right now, press conferences are held periodically," Warsh said. "If you ask me my true personal opinion, right now, Fed chairs and other central bankers around the FOMC, they speak quite frequently. There is no lack of transparency. But I would say this, I think truth-seeking is more important than repetition."