Federal Open Market Committee Press Conference: Live coverage

December 10, 2025 1:30 PM

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is expected to release its decision Wednesday whether it will cut short-term interest rates for the third consecutive time this year. Despite deep divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee over the path of monetary policy, most market watchers expect another 25 basis point cut.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, 89.6% of investors have penciled in a 25 basis point cut as of Wednesday morning, while 10.4% expect rates to remain unchanged. The Fed's current interest rate target is between 3.75% and 4%.

Since the October FOMC meeting, when policymakers cut short-term rates by 25 basis points, opinions inside the Fed have sharply diverged. Some members favor another reduction to support the labor market, while others argue for holding rates steady because of inflation risks.

Inflation is hovering near 3%, and several Fed officials remain concerned that the delayed onset of tariffs could add upward pressure on consumer prices in coming months. At the same time, some labor market indicators point to continued softening.

Some key data used to track inflation and the job market has been delayed or only partially released because of a 43-day government shutdown that began Oct. 1, 2025, and ended Nov. 12, 2025, leaving the FOMC with a smaller and less reliable pool of information to draw from.

If the FOMC moves to cut rates, it would give "incremental relief" meant to "support affordability, and has the potential to strengthen credit performance across multiple sectors," said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion, in a statement Wednesday.Even though a significant source of continued inflation is tied to housing, cutting rates won't necessarily offer relief, according to Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, because housing is in short supply, meaning that any savings realized by lower rates would be made up for in rising home values.

"The Fed cutting [rates] doesn't mean mortgage rates are going to come down," Cohn said.

Raneri says that if the FOMC keeps rates unchanged, it would underscore the central bank's "continuity in its cautious approach."

"Consumers face a relatively stable yet challenging environment where borrowing costs remain elevated," he said.

Consumer sentiment has also declined heading into the critical Chsristmas sales season. A WalletHub survey of more than 400 participants found that 65% feel either indifferent or upset about the possibility of an interest-rate cut in December. Inflation remains a top concern, with nine in 10 respondents saying it is still an issue.

7 Posts

-1m ago

Powell on 2% inflation: 'We will deliver'

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

To the question of whether the central bank is still prioritizing bringing inflation down to 2%, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Wednesday that the subject continues to be top of mind. Powell highlighted that tariffs have created complications in doing so, but highlighted that the central bank "will deliver 2% inflation." He did not note the timeline for this goal.

"We're committed to 2% inflation, and we will deliver 2% inflation," said Powell. "The story with inflation … is that, if you get away from tariffs, inflation is in the low 2's, so it's really tariffs that's causing most of the inflation overshoot.

"And we do think of those as likely … to be one-time price increase[s]. Our job is to be sure that it is, and we will do that job," he added.

8m ago

Powell punts on Supreme Court prognostication

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell declined to offer his views about an ongoing legal battle surrounding his Fed colleague, Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, whose challenge to President Trump's purported removal of her from the board is slated to be heard by the Supreme Court in January.

Powell, asked to offer his views about the case and the broader legal cloud surrounding the Fed's continued independence from the White House, politely declined, saying the central bank has nothing to gain from making public statements ahead of the court's decision.

"It's not something I want to address here," Powell said. "We're not legal commentators. It's before the courts, and we don't think we help matters by trying to engage as a public discussant of it."

When asked whether the prospect of a new Fed Governor being brought onto the board who is expected to serve as the next chairman complicates his leadership or changes his thinking, Powell simply said, "No."

8m ago

Powell: dissents part of 'thoughtful and respectful' dialog

By Maria Volkova

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the three dissents on the committee don't take away from the central bank's monetary policy, commenting that most committee members are in agreement that both sides of the central bank's dual mandate are in conflict.

"Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high and we want it to come down, and agrees that the labor market has softened and that there's further risk," Powell said. "Where the difference is is how you weigh those risks."Powell added that discussions around monetary policy among FOMC members are 'thoughtful and respectful," and that going forward the central bank is taking a wait-and-see stance.

"It's a close call, we have to make decisions, we always hope that the data will give us a clear read," added Powell. " You've got one tool you can't do two things at once. So at what pace do you move, what size moves do you make, and what's the timing — it's a very challenging situation. I think we're in a good place to wait and see how the economy evolves."

The comment comes after Federal Reserve Gov. Stephan Miran, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee cast dissenting votes Wednesday. Miran again called for a 50 basis point cut, while Schmid and Goolsbee wanted no change to the federal funds rate.

25m ago

Powell suggests Fed is on pause for now

By John Heltman

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed to acknowledge that the central bank is holding tight with interest rates for the time being, saying the Federal Open Market Committee's recent rate cuts render it "well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves."

When asked at a press conference following the FOMC's meeting Wednesday whether the Fed is "on hold" until it gets clearer

"Yes. The adjustments since September bring our policy within a broad range of estimates of neutral, and as we noted in our statement today, we are well-positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks," Powell said. "That new language points out that we will carefully evaluate that incoming data, and also I would note that, having reduced our policy rate by 75bps since September and 175bps since last September, the fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves."

Dot plot shows uncertain interest rate path ahead

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Bloomberg News

The Federal Open Market Committee published its quarterly Statement of Economic Projections Wednesday, showing no clear consensus on the near-term interest rate trajectory at a time when the committee is torn between shoring up the labor market and keeping inflation in check.

FOMC members showed a clear preference for a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday, with 12 of the committee's 19 members calling for a cut. Another six members preferred to keep interest rates unchanged, while one member preferred a 50 basis point cut.

But moving into 2026 and beyond, members took broadly variable views on the appropriate interest rate stance, with no one view showing clear momentum. Four FOMC members each said they expect interest rates to come down by 25, 50 and 75 basis points each over the course of 2026, with another three members expecting it to remain unchanged. Two members expected 100 basis points of rate reduction in 2026, one member expected interest rates to be 125 basis points lower in 2026 and one member expected rates to come down 175 basis points — or 1.75% — next year.

That high degree of variability highlights the high degree of uncertainty on the committee about whether unemployment or inflation poses the greatest risk to the economy. As a general rule, the Fed seeks to lower interest rates to spur employment and counteract recession; by contrast, the agency raises rates if inflation appears to be getting out of hand. But in some circumstances both economic stagnation and rising inflation can be present at the same time — a circumstance known as "stagflation" — which puts the Fed in an uncomfortable bind.

Compounding the problem is the White House's ongoing campaign to exert greater control over the Fed, with the ultimate goal of lowering interest rates. President Trump has engaged in efforts to turn over key personnel on the Fed board, initially focusing on Fed Chair Jerome Powell but later turning to Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, who Trump moved to fire via social media post in August. That move was challenged in court and is expected to be heard by the Supreme Court in January.

FOMC cuts short-term rates by 25 bps; three dissents

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee joined Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid in dissenting from the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday.

Bloomberg News

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to lower short-term interest rates by a quarter point Wednesday, with three members dissenting.

Recently confirmed Federal Reserve Gov. Stephan Miran, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee cast dissenting votes.

Miran again called for a 50 basis point cut, while Schmid and Goolsbee wanted no change to the federal funds rate.

The unusually high number of dissenting votes is notable but not unexpected, as some members of the FOMC have expressed ongoing concerns about inflation. The last time three officials opposed a rate cut was in 2019.

The Fed's rate-setting committee's decision to lower the target range for the policy rate to between 3.5% and 3.75% was anticipated by financial markets, but division among FOMC members regarding what the path forward for monetary policy should be raised some doubt about whether rates would be cut today at all.

This is the third consecutive time the Fed's rate setting arm has moved to cut rates, with earlier 25bps cuts in September and November.

The FOMC explained its decision to lower rates as being contingent on the labor market continuing to show signs of distress.

"Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September," the FOMC said in a press release. "More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated."

As Fed mulls cuts, all eyes on dissents

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran.

Bloomberg News

As Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell heads to the podium for one of the last press conferences he is likely to give as chair, the interest rate-setting committee he oversees is the most fractured it has been in years.

Since the beginning of the year, the central bank has gained one new member in the person of Stephen Miran, who was confirmed by the Senate in September to a seat on the Board of Governors that is set to expire in January. Though his time on the board has been brief, Miran has been relentless in spreading his message in speeches and television appearances, and that message is consistent and clear: interest rates are far too high and must come down rapidly.

The core of Miran's view — which details nicely with President Trump's view that interest rates should be far lower — is that the president's immigration and tariff policies have had a far greater impact on the economy than the conventional wisdom would have us believe. Miran says that the central bank should therefore cut interest rates now to shore up the labor market because risks of inflation are overrepresented in the data, or risk a recession.

But others on the FOMC have something like the opposite view. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid — who, like Miran, dissented from the FOMC's last 25bp rate cut in October — argued in a dissenting statement that labor market pressures are largely balanced while inflationary concerns are far more pressing for business owners, suggesting that cutting rates from their current level could make those inflationary pressures worse. Schmid advocated for leaving the federal funds rate unchanged.

"Talking to contacts in the Kansas City Fed's district, I hear widespread concern over continued cost increases and inflation," Schmid said. "I take small comfort in most measures of inflation expectations having not moved up. I view inflation expectations not as an input into Fed's decisions, but as the outcome of the policy decisions that the Fed makes."

Whether more FOMC members dissent from today's decision — and whether they fall into Miran or Schmid's camps — will be a major focus for Fed watchers out of today's meeting.

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	About John
twitter	JohnHeltman
mailto	john.heltman@arizent.com
linkedin	john-heltman-84b6b4a

	About John
twitter	JohnHeltman
mailto	john.heltman@arizent.com
linkedin	john-heltman-84b6b4a