WASHINGTON -- A closely watched survey of economists showed that recession expectations are diminishing and growth forecasts for 1992 are getting stronger.
The quarterly survey by the National Associationg of Business Economists, which tracks the opinion of 44 economists, projected growth in gross domestic product of 2% in 1992 - a pace they call "subdued" but better than the 1.5% forecast in February.
"The probability of another recession occurring by year's end is put at less than one in five," the survey added.
The main reason for revising the 1992 growth estimate was a better-than-expected expansion of GDP, at a 2% annual rate, in the first quarter.
"Much of this upward revision simply reflects the incorporation into the annual figure of the first quarter's surprising strength," the report said.
As measured by the GDP deflator, inflation was 3.7% in 1991 but should faal to 2.7% in 1992 before rising to 3.3% next year, the survey said.
It projected three-month Treasury bills will be yielding 3.8% in June, rising to 5% by March 1994. The yield on 30-year bonds is seen rising to 8.1% in March 1994 from 7.9% this June.
"Therefore, while those surveyed view monetary stimulus as necessary to promote the recovery, few expect any further declines in interest rates," the report concluded.