- Key insight: The re-election race for Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, is the latest example of how the Trump era has scrambled the traditional alliance between Republicans and the banking industry.
- Forward look: While the race is still rated "lean Republican," the result will show how if Republicans' brand of affordability politics can appease a voter base increasingly frustrated with the cost of living.
- What's at stake: Marshall is a top cosponsor of the Credit Card Competition Act, a swipe fee bill opposed by the banking industry that President Donald Trump also supports.
WASHINGTON — Sen. Roger Marshall could very well be the first Republican to lose a Senate race in deep red Kansas in nearly 100 years.
If that upset loss comes to pass, as recent polls suggest, it would serve as a testament to the potency of the
Part of the calculus Kansans will make, experts say, is the degree to which affordability and Trump's economic brand have improved the fortunes of voters across the state. One of the reasons Kansas' Senate race — typically an uncompetitive affair — has become so compelling to watch is that it is serving as a litmus test for whether voters will side with enthusiasm for Trump or a more traditional conservative Midwestern practicality.
"There's two types of Republicans in Kansas," said Nathaniel Birkhead, a political science professor at Kansas State University. "There are the kind of … Bob Dole,
Marshall is facing off against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist minister who's succeeded, according to Birkhead, in crossing lines into disaffected Republicans and independents. The Cook Political Report recently downgraded Marshall's chances in that race, changing their rating from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
"He's a very effective public speaker," Birkhead said of Hamilton. "He can speak intelligently about issues of faith that I think appeal to old ground Republican folks, but especially to independents as well, while also not really apologizing for having some liberal positions."
The race is also an example of how financial policy is manifested in these kinds of debates. Marshall is the primary sponsor of the Credit Card Competition Act, alongside retiring Senate minority whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
Credit cards are one way in which the traditional relationship between banks and the Republican party has been scrambled by the Trump era, with Trump actively calling for either rate caps or legislation that would require large banks to use at least one network that isn't Visa or Mastercard. Marshall, who's heavily aligned with Trump, shows Republicans' increasing willingness to join with Democrats to strike against an industry that has historically had stalwart allies in the Republican party.
"You can see how Marshall wants to present himself as someone who's comfortable with banks dictating policy," Birkhead said. "It is an interesting shift that I think taps into just the broader concerns that people have about being economically precarious, and so I think Republicans are taking up on that."
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The Kansas Bankers Association has joined a roughly $1 million ad buy calling out Marshall for his cosponsorship of the bill. The group put about $250,000 into the campaign and partnered with the Electronic Payments Coalition to argue that the proposals could have harmful effects on consumers and restrict access to credit cards offered by community banks.
There's always a chasm between what politicians talk about on the campaign trail and what they prioritize in Washington, and credit card policy is certainly not what will be driving most Kansans when they cast their ballots.
"It's bread-and-butter issues of inflation, higher gas prices, diesel prices, agricultural issues that are driving that race," said Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at TD Cowen. "Credit cards are just along for the ride."
And regardless of the outcome of the Senate race, the future of credit card swipe fee legislation remains unlikely but possible.
"Voters don't understand the mechanisms of how payments are made. They just want to be able to use their cards and buy their stuff," Seiberg said. "Every time Trump tweets about swipe fees, the banks get up in arms, the merchants celebrate, but I don't think it changes anything on the ground."
But to be sure, the Trump administration is still willing to use its political capital to strike out at large financial institutions like banks. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte has recently expressed an interest in
"To me, this is an endorsement by both sides of greater government intervention in how financial products are offered and what the terms are,' Seiberg said. "Populism generally involves pushback against large institutions, and some of the largest institutions in the United States are banks, and so the banks need to be prepared to be the focus of populist anger on the left and the right."
But while Trump's social media
"It still faces a real uphill climb in Congress, but I think it will get some attention," Katz said. "A hearing on the subject in Congress next year wouldn't surprise me. That would concern its opponents, but I still wouldn't expect it to become law."
If Marshall loses his Senate race, the legislation will lose both of its prime cosponsors, although the bill's proponents say the legislation will live on. Doug Kantor, National Association of Convenience Stores general counsel and member at the Merchants Payments Coalition, said that there's enough momentum for the bill that it'll pick up new lawmaker advocates.
And if Democrats retake the Senate and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., takes the gavel at the Senate Banking Committee, the CCCA would be one of only a handful of legislative issues where she and Trump agree.
"Credit card reforms are definitely within the circle where both of those individuals see the problems and agree there ought to be changes," Kantor said. "Republicans are much more willing to take on big companies, big interests, it's part of how things have shifted in the Trump era."
