WASHINGTON - The November elections are all but certain to return key players in financial services policy to Congress, but there is still some suspense about which party will wield the committee gavels over the next two years.
High-ranking members of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees are heavy favorites in their races. They face weak opposition and have hefty war chests, filled in large part by the industry.
All 435 House seats and 34 of the 100 in the Senate are up for election.
Among the senators in cycle are Banking Committee Chairman
Sen. Paul Sarbanes of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on Senate Banking, has two more years to his term.
On House Financial Services, where most members have strong reelection prospects, only one change is expected in the senior lineup. Rep. Doug Bereuter of Nebraska, the third-ranking Republican on the panel, will be retiring after 26 years in Congress.
Other panel members who are not running for reelection include Rep. Ken Lucas, D-Ky.; Rep. Doug Ose, R-Calif.; and Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Pa.
A few lower-ranking members on the panel are among the handful of House members in challenging races. They include Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah; freshman Rep. Rick Renzi, R-Ariz.; and Rep. Dennis Moore, D-Kan.
The only open question is whether Republicans will retain control of both chambers of Congress.
If Democrats pick up two seats in the Senate - which analysts say is possible, though not likely - Sen. Shelby would relinquish the chairmanship of the Banking Committee to Sen. Sarbanes.
It is considered even more unlikely that the GOP will lose its majority, now 23 seats, in the House. If that were to happen, the ranking Democrat, Rep.
This is one of the first elections in years that does not feature a nail-biter race involving a lawmaker heavily involved in financial services or the planned departure of a Banking Committee chairman.
"More often than not you have some significant change taking place in terms of individuals. In this case the only real question is the overall outcome of the elections," said Edward L. Yingling, the executive vice president of the American Bankers Association.
In 2002, then-Senate Banking Committee Chairman Phil Gramm, R-Tex., and House Financial Services' top Democrat, John LaFalce of New York, retired from Congress. Their departures that year opened the door for Sen. Shelby to become Banking chairman and Rep. Frank to move into the top Democratic slot on House Financial Services.
In 2000, Republican Party rules limiting lawmakers from leading a committee for more than six years ousted Rep. Jim Leach, R-Iowa, from the chairman's seat on the House Banking Committee. That not only ushered in Rep. Oxley as the new chairman but also cleared the way for House leadership to transform House Banking into the broader House Financial Services.
In 1998, then-Rep. Schumer beat then-Senate Banking Chairman Alfonse M. D'Amato, a Republican, in a nasty, neck-and-neck Senate contest in New York. The upset elevated Sen. Gramm to Senate Banking chairman.
The only drama this year could be in House Financial Services, depending on the outcome of the presidential election and other key factors.
Rep. Frank, like at least half of Massachusetts' 10-member House delegation, plans to run in a special election to fill Sen. John Kerry's seat if the Democratic challenger defeats President Bush in November. However, Rep. Frank has said he would not throw his hat in the ring for the open Senate seat if Democrats won the House, because he considers the House Financial Services chairmanship a "more significant government role."
If Rep. Frank left the House, Rep.
The fund-raising data on these pages is based on finance reports candidates file with the Federal Election Commission. It was compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.
Baker
Rep. Richard Baker, the Louisiana Republicanwho leads the capital markets, insurance, and government-sponsored enterprises subcommittee,has two Democratic challengers in his state’sunique open-primary system, which allows anunlimited number of candidates on the Novemberballot.The candidate who receives more than 50% ofthe vote — which Rep. Baker is expected to easilydo — wins. If no one garners more than 50%, thedistrict holds a runoff election in December.
Running against Rep. Baker are EdwardAnthony "Scott" Galmon, a school board member,and Rufus H. Craig Jr., a Baton Rouge lawyerwhose Web site says that as a young man hemanaged an apartment complex and maintainedthe equipment for a large construction company.
Rep. Baker has raised $886,830 and spent$764,488. Top contributors to his campaigninclude the Credit Union National Association ($12,500), American Express ($12,250), the AmericanBankers Association ($10,000), Bank of America ($10,000), and Bank One ($10,000). Campaignfinance reports were not available for his opponents.
Kelly
Rep. Sue Kelly, the New YorkRepublican who leads the oversightand investigations subcommittee,is expected to faceDemocrat Janine Selendy inNovember.Rep. Kelly has raised$903,711 and spent $436,095.Top contributors to her campaigninclude the AmericanBankers Association ($10,000),the Credit Union NationalAssociation ($6,000), GoldmanSachs ($5,500), and WachoviaCorp. ($5,000).
Campaign finance reportswere not available for Ms.Selendy.
Bachus
Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala.,who heads the financial institutionssubcommittee, is runningunopposed after fending off aGOP primary challenge fromPhillip Jauregui, a Birminghamattorney who represented theAlabama judge who gainednational attention for installinga monument to the Ten Commandmentsat his courthouse.Rep. Bachus is a prolificfund-raiser, taking in $1.4 millionand spending $1 millionthis election cycle. Top contributorsto his campaign includeNew Century Financial Corp.($16,543), the IndependentInsurance Agents of America($11,000), the National Associationof Realtors ($10,000),WellsFargo ($10,000), Credit SuisseFirst Boston ($10,000), and theCredit Union National Association($10,000).
Frank
Rep. Barney Frank of Massachusetts,the ranking Democraton the House Financial ServicesCommittee, has raised $637,603and spent $513,266 to defendhis Boston-area seat against achallenge from Chuck Morse, aconservative running as anIndependent.Mr. Morse, a former radiotalk-show host, does not havethe support of the MassachusettsRepublican Party. Nor has hebeen endorsed by his own parents,according to The BostonGlobe. He has raised $31,162 andspent $21,985.
Financial services interests arethe top contributors to Rep.Frank’s campaign. They includeBank One Corp. ($10,000), theCredit Union National Association($7,500),Washington Mutual($7,000), and the AmericanBankers Association ($6,000).
Bunning
Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Kentucky,who leads the economic policysubcommittee, has raised $5.7million and spent $1.8 millionof it. His challenger, DemocratDaniel Mongiardo, a state senatorand physician, has raised$1.4 million and spent $695,637.The top contributors to Sen.Bunning's campaign includeAmerican Financial Group($22,000), Goldman Sachs($15,500), and Wells Fargo($13,250).
Shelby
Senate Banking CommitteeChairman Richard Shelby, RAla.,has more money in hiscampaign coffers than anyoneelse in Congress except Sen.Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., whoalso serves on the panel.Sen. Shelby has $11.6 millionin the bank and has spent $1.7million on his reelection. Hisopponent, Democrat WayneSowell, collected $4,941 and hasjust $310 left.
Mr. Sowell lists the legalizationof marijuana as his top legislativepriority, describing it onhis Web site as "God's perfectplant." He is the first African-American that either majorparty in Alabama has nominatedto run for a U.S. Senate seat.
Few political analysts predictSen. Shelby’s election prospectsor effectiveness as Senate Bankingchairman to be affected by aSenate Ethics Committee investigationinto charges that he leakedclassified material to the mediawhen he was the chairman of theIntelligence Committee.
Among the top contributorsto Sen. Shelby's reelection effortare Citigroup Inc. ($68,000),MBNA Corp. ($42,000), andFannie Mae ($39,250).
Sanders
Rep. Bernard Sanders, the only independentin the House and the ranking member on thefinancial institutions subcommittee, does nothave to file for reelection until Sept. 17, and isexpected to do so. His major-party opponents sofar are Greg Parke, a Republican and former AirForce pilot, and Larry Drown, a former Republicancandidate for state attorney general who isnow running as a Democrat.Rep. Sanders has raised $589,025 and spent$440,899.Most of his contributors are labor unionmembers. The National Association of Realtorsgave $5,000 to his campaign. Mr. Parke has raised$249,163 and spent $245,279. Campaign financereports were not available for Mr. Drown.
Gutierrez
Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., the ranking memberon the oversight and investigations subcommittee,does not face serious opposition in his bid forreelection.Rep. Gutierrez has raised $166,775 and spent$142,510. No reports are on record for his opponents,Tony Lopez-Cisneros, a Republican, and LibertariansGene Koprowski and Jake Witmer.
The list of top 20 contributors to Rep. Gutierrezis dominated by labor unions and contains fewfinancial interests. Those are the Chicago MercantileExchange ($3,500) and Bank One Corp.($2,750).
Kanjorski
Rep. Paul Kanjorski, the top Democraton the capital markets, insurance, andgovernment-sponsored enterprises subcommittee,faces no major-party opposition.Kenneth Brenneman, a ConstitutionParty candidate filed to challenge him,but it is unclear if Mr. Brenneman meetsdistrict residency requirements to run.Rep. Kanjorski has raised $572,709and spent $183,938. He has received$23,595 from New Century FinancialCorp., $10,000 from the National Associationof Federal Credit Unions,$7,000 from Washington Mutual, and$6,000 from the National Associationof Realtors.
Oxley
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Michael G.Oxley faces only weak Democratic opposition in his solidly Republicandistrict around Findlay, Ohio. Rep. Oxley has raised $1.4 millionand spent $659,187 on his reelection.Running against him is Ben Konop, a 28-year-old corporatedefense lawyer who has raised $96,439 and spent $63,353. Mr.Konop has criticized Rep. Oxley for accepting corporate contributionsand challenged him to turn down invitations to parties hostedby financial services companies at the Republican NationalConvention later this month.
Early this year Rep. Oxley and the 11 other Republican membersof the Ohio congressional delegation were the targets of a Democraticeffort to recruit strong challengers to try to unseat theincumbents. The plan did not pan out, and only GOP Rep. StevenC. LaTourette, who serves on House Financial Services, faces “evena hint of a challenge” from a state representative, according to theColumbus Dispatch.
The top contributors to Rep. Oxley’s reelection effort includeMBNA Corp. ($71,500), Citigroup ($35,550), Bank One Corp.($24,750), and the Credit Union National Association ($12,000).
Schumer
Sen. Charles Schumer of NewYork, the top Democrat on theeconomic policy subcommittee,is defending his seat againstRepublican state AssemblymanHoward Mills in the mostexpensive Senate race in thecountry.Sen. Schumer has raised $26million and spent $4.9 million.Mr. Mills has spent $250,000 ofthe $453,905 he has raised sofar.
Financial firms dominate thelist of top contributors to Sen.Schumer. They include GoldmanSachs ($280,590), Citigroup($223,550),Morgan Stanley($185,500), and J.P. MorganChase & Co. ($161,800).
Waters
Rep. Maxine Waters, a CaliforniaDemocrat who serves as theranking member of the housingsubcommittee, faces a weak challengefrom Republican RossMoen, a retired police lieutenant.Rep. Waters has raised$176,978 and spent $121,812.Mr. Moen has raised $3,550 andspent $3,540.Few financial interests areamong the top contributors toRep. Waters. They include theNational Association of Realtors($10,000) and Fannie Mae($3,000).
Ney
Rep. Bob Ney, the OhioRepublican who leads the housingsubcommittee, is beingchallenged by political noviceBrian Thomas, a Democraticauto worker and union steward.Rep. Ney has raised $963,806and spent $569,329. Mr.Thomas has raised $13,893 andspent $11,686.The top contributors to Rep.Ney’s campaign include NewCentury Financial Corp.($11,300), Bank One Corp.($10,000), HSBC ($9,250), andMorgan Stanley ($9,000).
Dodd
Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, theranking Democrat on the securitiessubcommittee, faces RepublicanJack Orchulli, a formerfashion industry executive.Sen. Dodd has raised $6.5 millionand spent $3 million of that.He has received $117,400 fromBear Stearns, $91,750 from Citigroup,and $91,500 fromNational Westminster Bank.
Mr. Orchulli has $852,213 ofcash on hand, nearly all of whichis his own money. He has spent$409,055.
Bennett
Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah,the chairman of the financialinstitutions subcommittee, leadshis opponent, Democrat PaulVan Dam, in both polls andmoney. Sen. Bennett has raisedmore than $2 million and spent$1.4 million, including $40,000from Morgan Stanley, $27,000from Fannie Mae, and $18,000from Goldman Sachs.Mr. Van Dam, a former Utahattorney general, has taken in$73,431 and spent $51,868. The66-year-old is campaigning on atandem bicycle, traversing the vastexpanses of Utah with his wife.
