There is a big reason why Wall Street keeps setting records: The nation's economy has virtually never looked healthier than it does right now.
Here's how several keen observers from the investment community sum up business conditions right now.
"In no previous American business expansion has economic activity been so well-balanced with potential supply," according to Allen Sinai, chief global economist of Primark Decision Economics.
"The structure of the economy is currently very sound, with no major imbalances in the goods, labor or capital markets," says Mickey D. Levy, chief economist at NationsBanc Capital Markets Inc.
"Inflation has never been so low at such an advanced stage of the cycle," notes Bruce Steinberg, manager of macroeconomic research at Merrill Lynch & Co.
Unless there is a sudden change in policy or an unexpected external shock, next year also looks good, they say. What, then, could possibly go wrong?
Well, perhaps consumers are really tapped out this time. Credit card delinquencies have leveled off, but so have retail sales. A lackluster Christmas selling season could change the mood of investors.
Mr. Sinai doesn't think so, although he is slightly cautious. "Consumer spending should drive the economy forward, but not to the extent of past years, as households save more for retirement, take down prior indebtedness and stay cautious because of potential job loss."
What about demographics? Some economists think a drop in new household formations - the delayed result of the "baby bust" in the early 1970s - could hurt the economy next year.
Mr. Levy respectfully disagrees. "While demographic changes are important, even crucial, to long-term economic growth and performance, they tend to unfold gradually and have little influence on short-term patterns within business cycles."
What about unexpected policy changes?
No changes are likely to come from the Federal Reserve. The Fed will probably remain on the sidelines after this week, declining yet again to change rates.
The outlook for tax and trade policies looks uneventful, as Washington stays with the status quo after the election. Public spending initiatives also will be tempered.
In the realm of potential external shocks, what about the comments last week by Eisuke Sakakibara, director general of international finance in Japan's powerful Ministry of Finance?
Mr. Sakakibara suggested that the yen had fallen far enough against the dollar and said Japan's economy is on the road to recovery, implying that more of that wealthy nation's resources will be invested at home than abroad.
If so, the outlook for financial markets, particularly bonds, might weaken and seriously hurt the U.S. economy, since Japan is a major influence in the credit market.
"When Sakakibara speaks, the markets have clearly learned to listen," said Cameron Umetsu, senior Japanese economist at UBS Securities. Still, this is a matter for concern, but probably not alarm.
Observers said that, rather than signaling a definite turning point in Japan's monetary policy - a credit tightening that would act to bring home funds now placed elsewhere for better returns - the Tokyo official probably intended to put a lid on the dollar's value.
