Maury Harris, chief economist at PaineWebber Inc., is expecting the Fed to raise short-term interest rates by another 75 basis points in the first quarter. But he expects a "meaningful slowdown" in real economic growth, to more than the Fed's 2.5% limit, which "should preclude further increases later in the spring.

Writing in Monday's issue of Standard & Poor's Credit Week, he said: "Higher interest rates already are taking their toll on the housing industry, and its 0.4 percentage point-growth contribution will turn slightly negative in 1995."

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