PHILADELPHIA -- The outlook for real gross domestic product growth is less optimistic now than it was three months ago, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey of 30 forecasters.
The consensus now sees real GDP growing at a 2.6% rate over the next two quarters, down from 3% in the last survey. For the year, the forecasters see real GDP growing at 3.7%, compared with 3.6% in the last survey, but then decelerating to 2.5% in 1995.
The outlook for inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, was little changed. The forecasters continue to see inflation averaging 2.9% in 1994, then accelerating to 3.3% in 1995. That last figure is up 0.1 point from the last survey.
The forecasters also expect rising short-term interest rates, with the three-month Treasury bill averaging 4.1% in 1994 and 4.9% in 1995. They said the 10-year Treasury note rate will hold steady at 7.2% over the remainder of this year and fall to 7.1% in 1995.