Roughly 3 million houses — two to three years' worth of production — weren't built as a result of the recession, according to the National Association of Home Builders' chief prognosticator.
Had there not been a boom and a corresponding bust, builders would have produced 3 million new single-family and multifamily units more than they actually did, NAHB chief economist David Crowe said at the National Housing and Rehabilitation Association's annual meeting last week in Bonita Springs, Fla.
Based on the underlying demographics, Crowe said, "we are now way behind on production. Some states are more than a year behind."
Crowe did not suggest how long it would take home builders to catch up once the new-home market turns positive. But he did that say there is plenty of pent-up demand awaiting the recovery.
He is forecasting a "slow and steady" rebound in both the single and multifamily sectors.
Crowe is calling for an increase of 18% in single-family starts this year, to 555,000, and an increase of 15% in multifamily starts, to 133,000.
