Commonwealth Mortgage Assurance Co. has rolled out a scoring model for lenders that will forecast loan losses during the lifetime of a loan portfolio.

The Philadelphia-based mortgage insurer said it was the first in the industry to unveil such a model. Others, it said, generally attempt to predict defaults within only the first few years of origination.

Another difference between CMAC's Prophet Score and its competitors, a CMAC spokeswoman said, is that other systems rely mainly on Fico credit data, while Prophet utilizes other borrower, loan, and property data.

CMAC also introduced ExpressTrak, a system that combines documentation processing, mortgage scoring, and pricing options.

Frank Filipps, CMAC's president and chief executive, said the two programs probably would serve mainly to enhance CMAC's relationships with lenders, because the programs will provide them with a more accurate gauge on default risk and will help reduce paperwork.

"This new system will revolutionize the way we do business by offering a quicker, more precise, and cost-effective loan origination process," Mr. Filipps said.

He also expects the systems to generate some additional revenue, mainly because Prophet Score will enable CMAC to include loans that it previously might have declined if it had just used Fico data.

But one of CMAC's major competitors, Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp., bristled at CMAC's claim that it is the only insurer with a loss-predicting mortgage scoring system.

Curt Culver, president and chief operating officer of MGIC, dismissed Prophet Score as "another item in a long line of products to hit the street already." But he conceded that MGIC's mortgage scorer predicts defaults only within the first four years of origination.

Mr. Culver said the most interesting feature of CMAC's new programs is that lenders can use ExpressTrak to select lower premium rates based on the credit scores generated by Prophet Score.

He said MGIC does not adjust rates according to credit scores. Instead, it bases prices of premiums on to loan-to-value ratios.

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