Seven Senators to Watch on Nail-biter Interchange Vote

WASHINGTON — Just hours before the Senate votes on the biggest post-Dodd-Frank bill for the industry, no one in Washington knows what the outcome will be.

Washington insiders estimate Sens. Jon Tester and Bob Corker are still a few colleagues short of the 60-vote threshold needed to delay a cap on debit-card swipe fees. But their compromise bill announced yesterday — shortening the delay to a year from 15 months and making enough substantive regulatory changes so Congress may not have to revisit the issue in the future — has shifted enough momentum the industry's way to put some of the fence-sitters within reach.

Here are seven senators, including both Democrats and Republicans, who are top targets today for their vote:

  • Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio
  • David Vitter, R-La.
  • Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H.
  • John Boozman, R-Ark.
  • Ben Cardin, D-Md.
  • Joe Manchin, D-W.V.
  • Roger Wicker, R-M

Both the bankers and the merchants have elements to their advantage. While the banks have momentum, the merchants' biggest weapon is Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill. The original sponsor of the interchange provisions in Dodd-Frank — which the Tester-Corker bill would roll back somewhat — Durbin is the Senate's majority whip with a strong base of allies. In short, Durbin has a lot of power and influence in the Senate, and fought for years to get interchange limits enacted. Observers expect him to pull out all the stops in a bid to stop Tester's legislation from passing.
Ultimately, while the vote today is a rare nail-biter, the winning side may enjoy a comfortable margin. Senators who show up late to the vote are likely hoping that one side has a clear advantage by then, which would enable them to support the victor.

In a research note today, FBR Capital Markets said the "vote count remains fluid," illustrated yesterday by three senators "who previously voted for the Durbin Amendment" and "publicly announced that they will support Senator Tester's delaying amendment."

"It is likely that several of the undecided members will wait until the end of the vote before casting their individual vote," FBR said. "This is a tactic used by members on controversial issues that allows them to gauge whether they will be on the winning side or not."

For reprint and licensing requests for this article, click here.
MORE FROM AMERICAN BANKER