WASHINGTON - Six factors, including a surging stock market and significantly lower interest rates, will help the next president duplicate the economic successes of the Clinton administration, according to an aggressive forecast made Tuesday by Thomas F. Carpenter, chief economist of ASB Capital Management here.

The rate on a 30-year mortgage, Mr. Carpenter predicted, will fall 30%, to 5.5%, during the next president's term, while the Dow Jones Industrial average will double to 20,000. In October, the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to drop its bias toward tightening, and will lower the 6.5% federal funds rate next year, according to Mr. Carpenter. "A sequence of consecutive reductions in the fed funds rate will provide the cheap financial fuel that will raise equity prices and bond prices to a substantial degree during the new president's first year in office," he said.

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