“Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth.”
The boxer’s quip brings to mind one of the criticisms a Japanese government panel made of Tokyo Electric Power Co., the operator of the Fukushima nuclear plant, in a just-released report on that post-Tsunami disaster. According to an
The Journal quotes a Japanese official as saying: “People have a tendency not to see what they don’t want to see, not to hear what they don't want to hear, not to think about things they don’t want to think about. ... The latest disaster taught us the importance of recognizing such tendencies and incorporating such risks in our disaster responses.”
Tepco, in other words, had a plan until they got punched in the mouth.
In financial services, the assumption that the improbable is impossible, the Tepco tendency, has shown up in all kinds of disastrous ways. Think of Long-Term Capital Management’s fatal
Planning is important, but when plans fail to account for contingencies outside our assumptions, the results can be, as Tyson would say,
How can risk managers train banks so they don't get knocked out by a surprise left hook? Post a comment below.