The banking industry could defy the old adage about sticks and stones. All the name-calling in Washington these days has the potential to do real damage to banks and the economy, says David Fanger, a senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service Inc.
In Moody’s Weekly Credit Outlook, which came out Monday, Fanger warns that penalizing banks could backfire in a big way, if it revives the turmoil in the financial markets (which he sees as a possibility).
Here’s his take, which is reprinted with permission:
Last Wednesday, top executives from the largest U.S. banks were
We believe that the increasing demonization of big banks in the public arena could threaten U.S. bank ratings and be counterproductive for the wider economy. In our view, the U.S. banking system is still a long way from fully recovering from the financial crisis and the Great Recession. Although a modest economic recovery is now underway, asset quality at most U.S. banks continues to deteriorate, and we think that it may be another year or more before the expected losses embedded in most banks’ loan and securities portfolios are fully realized. As a result, bank profitability is likely to remain extremely weak.
As proposed, the administration’s bank tax would result in only a very
The U.S. Congress is considering enacting a resolution process for failing bank holding companies that could mandate the
The combination of weaker profitability due to a more punitive bank tax, a credible resolution process that threatens to impose losses on senior creditors and the possibility of other measures intended to penalize banks has the potential to significantly constrain U.S. banks’ access to capital markets. Such constraints might force larger banks to shrink in an orderly fashion, accomplishing the stated objectives of a number of policymakers. But this scenario could also lead to a far less benign outcome, reviving turmoil in financial markets, forcing another round of deleveraging across financial institutions and as a result, reduce credit availability even further. Under such circumstances, the harm to the real economy could be substantial.