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Adoption in emerging markets largely will fuel the growth of mobile payments, which could reach US$250 billion in sales volume by 2012, according to consulting firm Arthur D. Little Inc. In 2012, emerging markets will account for 65% of mobile-payment transaction volume, while developed markets will represent 35%, estimates the firm. Mobile payments will not grow as quickly in developed markets because consumers will not forgo existing payment systems, and adoption will be limited to niche segments. "Despite the current hype, we do not expect to see massive Near Field Communication adoption in a majority of developed countries until 2011 at the earliest," says Karim Taga, director of Arthur D. Little's telecoms, information, media and electronics segment.
