Slideshow 9 Bank Policy Predictions For Year's End

Published
  • August 28 2013, 8:00am EDT
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As the year end edges closer, the window is narrowing for policymakers to make 2013 memorable for banking legislation and rule-making. Following are predictions from Washington-based experts about what will transpire—and what won't—on the policy front before the arrival of 2014. (Image: Fotolia)

Arthur Wilmarth, law professor, George Washington University:

"Tim Geithner will be nominated as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. ... Larry Summers and Janet Yellen will essentially knock each other out, and I've always believed Mr. Geithner is much closer to the president than Mr. Summers. Certainly his background as crisis manager gives him a significant advantage." (Image: Bloomberg News)

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Camden Fine, president and CEO, Independent Community Bankers of America:

"Higher capital standards on the mega TBTF banks will stick and … the regulatory agencies will not back off. In fact, in terms of enforcement and tighter regulations imposed on mega banks, the regulatory agencies will become even more aggressive." (Image: Fotolia)

Jo Ann Barefoot, co-chair, Treliant Risk Advisors:

"The CFPB will roll out a new technology-based examination tool, which will download and analyze 100% of customer file data for major products at the large banks - including mortgages - and banks will start to recognize that, if the tool works, it will transform examinations and therefore the compliance process." (Image: Fotolia)

Mark Calabria, director of financial regulation studies, Cato Institute:

"Larry Summers will be confirmed as Fed chairman. … First, the President clearly prefers Summers. So far, Democratic opposition in the Senate has been minor. ... So at this point I think we are above 60 votes for Summers, and I think that's really the only thing the President cares about. The other surprise is that Summers will turn out to be very pro-regulation." (Image: Bloomberg News)

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Michael Calhoun, president, Center for Responsible Lending:

"The CFPB will continue working with industry on the Qualified Mortgage/Ability to Repay Rule, and it will be implemented as planned in January." (Image: Fotolia)

Richard Hunt, president and CEO, Consumer Bankers Association:

"The CFPB enforcement-restitution fund balance will increase significantly."

Susan Krause Bell, managing director, Promontory Financial Group:

"Changes and additions to risk-based capital will taper off and regulators here and abroad will begin to build up the liquidity framework further, perhaps significantly so. Although supervisors focused on capital as the primary reform after the crisis, liquidity risk was arguably a much bigger factor." (Image: Fotolia)

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Thomas Vartanian, partner, Dechert LLP:

"Democrats and Republicans will agree on nothing except that they disagree, so there will be no legislation impacting financial institutions passed by Congress in the foreseeable future. This will exacerbate the uncertainty in markets, which today are left to speculate on the future of the secondary mortgage market and needed regulatory relief." (Image: Fotolia)

Wayne Abernathy, executive director of financial institutions policy and regulatory affairs, American Bankers Association:

"There will be recognition that the Basel III capital exercise is a continuing saga rather than a finished story, raising the prospect of more revisions and, who knows, maybe even a Basel IV. A lot of the revisions are going to be around the issue of workability and the impact on the overall economy. Regulators may address the complexity of the rule, particularly as it pertains to smaller institutions, but there are complexity issues for the larger institutions as well." (Image: Fotolia)