Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.
Senator John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, center left, and Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, center right, greet members of Congress before Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015. Obama declared the U.S. economy healed and said the nation now must begin work to close the gap between the well-off and the wanting. Photographer: Pete Marovich/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** John McCain; Lindsey Graham

Five GOP senators to watch in CFPB arbitration rule fight

Four Republican senators are being eyed as possible defectors on a vote to repeal the CFPB's arbitration rule, while another senator may be absent, which will make the GOP's job harder.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.
Senator John Kennedy, a Republican from Louisiana, questions Christopher Wray, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) nominee for U.S. President Donald Trump, not pictured, during a Senate Judiciary Committee nomination hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, July 12, 2017. Wray pledged strict independence if confirmed to head the FBI, as senators focused on his ability to pursue investigations independently amid revelations about a meeting the president's son held with a Russian lawyer during last years campaign. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.

The freshman senator was the only Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee not to be a co-sponsor on Chairman Mike Crapo’s resolution. He declined to say whether he would support the measure when asked last week. His office said he is studying the measure. However, bank lobbyists believe Kennedy may be successfully pressured into supporting the repeal effort.

“I think he will be one that will come around and support his banking committee chairman on an important vote,” said Paul Merski, executive vice president of congressional relations for the Independent Community Bankers of America. “He hasn’t come out and said he opposes it.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, listens during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, July 26, 2017. The hearing is entitled Oversight of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) and Attempts to Influence U.S. Elections: Lessons Learned from Current and Prior Administrations. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

Graham is usually tight with Senate leadership, but he co-sponsored legislation in 2015 that would allow military service members to opt out of arbitration agreements. That is a clear sign to lobbyists that he will be reluctant to repeal the CFPB’s rule.

“While the whip count is still fluid, our operating assumption at this point is that Sen. Graham is unlikely to support the measure,” Isaac Boltansky, a policy analyst at Compass Point Research & Trading, wrote in a client note.

Part of his issue may be that the Congressional Review Act would prevent the CFPB from writing a similar rule in the future and it’s not clear if that would apply to a service-member-specific rule. Congress could take it upon itself to enact legislation to make the fix, but that could be a heavier lift than rescinding the CFPB rule.
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
Senator John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, listens during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing with Former Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) James Comey, not pictured, in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, June 8, 2017. Comey in prepared remarks to the committee said U.S. President Donald Trump sought his loyalty and urged him to drop the investigation into former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

The longtime lawmaker and former GOP presidential candidate was the nail in the coffin for the health care vote last week, casting a late vote that doomed the measure. His views on the CFPB arbitration rule are unclear.

But he left Washington last week to undergo treatment for brain cancer, and it’s unclear whether—even if he supports repealing the CFPB rule—he will be able to be present to vote for it. If McCain cannot attend the vote, Republicans could afford to lose only one more GOP senator.

“Republicans have little room for error with a 52-48 majority in the Senate, and given that the length of Sen. John McCain's upcoming absence is unknown, it is possible the majority might be 51-48 for some time,” Gardner said.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Ala.
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Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska

The Alaska Republican is a well-known GOP moderate who has already bucked her party on the health care and other debates. She is said to share Sen. Graham's concerns about mandatory arbitration agreements for service members.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine
Senator Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine, speaks to members of the media near the Senate Subway in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, July 27, 2017. Senate Republicans are gearing up to try to pass a stripped-down Obamacare repeal plan many hope won't become law. Photographer: Zach Gibson/ Bloomberg

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine

Like Murkowski, Collins is a noted GOP moderate who clashes with Republican leadership. She has not said how she views the CFPB rule repeal, but has generally favored tougher regulations on banks.
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